If you've read it once, you've read it a million times: Eight wins in the ACC far exceeded anyone's expectations, Seth Greenberg is doing a great job with the Virginia Tech program, the Hokies are competitive in the ACC, yadda-yadda-yadda. That's all true, but it's not all sunshine and roses just yet. There is a ton of work to do before Virginia Tech can become a true ACC basketball program. Here's a straight-talk evaluation of where the VT basketball program stands right now, and the challenges that lie ahead.

If you had told me before the season started that Virginia Tech was going to go 8-8 in the ACC and enter the ACC tournament as the fourth seed, I'd have had you committed. If you had repeated it to me after the Hokies dropped a January 8th game at FSU, a game that the sloppy, undisciplined 'Noles seemed intent on losing, I'd have had you committed "with authority," as they say on SportsCenter. VT was 0-2 in the ACC, 6-6 overall, and displaying very few signs of life.

We all know what happened after that. The Hokies ripped off five straight wins, four straight in ACC play, including a road game at #12 Georgia Tech. That boosted VT to an 11-6 record, 4-2 in the ACC, and the Hokies were on their way. Tech sputtered at times, but every time they looked like they could be left for dead, they surprised everyone by bouncing back. In the end, they finished 16-14 (8-8), good enough for an NIT bid, the Hokies' first postseason action in nine years.

The Hokies' season peaked on Wednesday night, February 2nd, when they knocked off Miami in Coral Gables to go to 12-7, 5-3 in the ACC. At that point, the coveted 14-win season, and the .500 record and NIT bid that came with it were all but a lock. VT was alone in fourth in the ACC, and the NCAA tournament bid talk started up in earnest. Anything seemed possible.

Then came Wake Forest. The ultra-talented Demon Deacons entered Cassell Coliseum and took it to the Hokies, and it was during this game that you can pinpoint the exact moment at which Virginia Tech came back down to earth. It happened with 13:17 left, after the Hokies capped off an 18-9 run to close a big Wake Forest lead down to just seven points, at 50-43.

Score-wise, VT was making a run, but a look at the Hokie players revealed the truth: they were gassed. Wake Forest came out of a timeout and slapped a 14-0 run on the Hokies in the next five minutes, then cruised to an 83-63 victory.

From that point on, the previously-surprising and enigmatic Hokies became very predictable. They played strong at home, in fact going 4-0 in Cassell from that point on, including the signature win of the season over Duke and an NIT win over Temple. But on the road or at neutral sites, they became a nightmare to watch. They got pasted at Maryland (86-71), dropped a very winnable game at Virginia (65-60), and played poorly and lethargically at NC State (a 74-54 loss), in the ACC tournament (GT 73, VT 54), and at Memphis in the NIT (83-62).

The one exception to this road trend was a hard-fought 66-64 loss at Clemson, a game in which VT competed very hard, forged a great comeback to take a late 64-61 lead, then got hit with the bad karma stick in a painful loss in which the Tigers scored five points in the last ten seconds for the win.

The pattern the Hokies fell into at the end of the season � playing hard at home and grabbing big wins over Duke and Maryland, while tanking away from Cassell � points to youth, lack of depth, and the critical importance of a large, rowdy home crowd to the performance of a young team.

But it also points to the fact that the Hokies didn't do well what the elite ACC teams do well: peak at tournament time. In watching a full season of ACC basketball, it became apparent that the best programs in the league don't get caught up in what goes on week to week during the regular season. They view the regular season as preparation and positioning for the ACC and NCAA tournaments. You can hear it in the quotes from the head coaches around the league and see it in the way they attempt to manipulate their teams' psyches and performance as the season goes on and the postseason approaches.

The best coaches in the ACC don't cry and wring their hands from week to week � only their fans do. (A big raspberry to the NC State fans who criticized Herb Sendek mercilessly during the season, only to have Sendek make them look bad � again � by closing the season strong. Sendek has once again made his critics look like overreacting fools, this time by herding NC State into the Sweet 16.)

The best teams and coaches see the season as a big picture, and for the most part have their teams peaking when it matters. The one glaring exception this year was Maryland, where Gary Williams, despite constant tinkering and manipulation, could never get his erratic stars, most notably guard John Gilchrist, to get on track and stay there. The Terps had their moments, most notably two wins over Duke, but fizzled at the end and were relegated to the NIT for the first time in over a decade.

Meanwhile, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, and even Clemson picked up steam as they approached the finish line. Wake Forest lost momentum and crashed and burned in the ACC and NCAA tourneys, and the programs at Virginia and FSU, stuck in a season-long malaise, continued to struggle.

The Hokies and Miami Hurricanes found themselves in the same boat, starting out like relative gangbusters but struggling to close things out. Neither team has the talent or depth that most of the rest of the ACC boasts, but just as importantly, both programs have yet to learn how to progress through an entire ACC season and close out strong.

Such is the case at Virginia Tech, where they had to spend so much energy just to win any given game that it was impossible for the players, coaches, and fans to pace themselves. This was most evident in the road game at Virginia on February 12th, when the Hokies failed to play with intensity and let a poor-shooting UVa team get away with one. The Hokies had just lost to Wake and Maryland and were facing a home game against Duke, making the road game against floundering UVa critical. They failed to take advantage of the opportunity.

About one other thing, we must be honest: the Hokies often got lucky. Five ACC games involving VT were decided in the last few seconds, and the Hokies won four of them, a 4-1 record in tight games that made the difference between 8-8 and a possible 4-12 ACC record:

• VT 59, Clemson 57 (January 15th): Carlos Dixon steals a pass and dunks it for the go-ahead basket with 6.9 seconds left, then the Hokies survive a three-point attempt and a tip-in attempt by Clemson.
  
  
• VT 72, NC State 71 (January 19th): Coleman Collins hits a jumper with 13 seconds left to put Tech ahead, and Jamon Gordon blocks Julius Hodge's shot with 1.6 seconds left to seal the win.
  
  
• VT 70, Georgia Tech 69 (January 22nd): Carlos Dixon puts the Hokies ahead with 36.8 seconds left, and in the last 12 seconds, the Jackets miss four shots and two free throws, allowing the Hokies to escape with a W.
  
  
• VT 67, Duke 65 (February 17th): Zabian Dowdell makes a three-pointer to put VT up with 14.6 seconds left, and in the last five seconds, Duke's Daniel Ewing misses two open three-pointers.
  
  
• Clemson 66, VT 64 (March 1st): Finally, fate quits smiling on the Hokies. Clemson gets a three-pointer from Olu Babalola (not exactly a scoring machine from the perimeter) with 15 seconds left, then steals an errant Jamon Gordon pass and gets a dunk from Sharrod Ford at the buzzer for the win.

Yes, the Hokies made the plays, and their opponents didn't. But all five of those games could have gone against VT, drastically altering the perception of how VT's season went. In the end, it comes down to players making plays, and this year, VT's players made them, and the other team didn�t. Next year, that trend could reverse itself � these things tend to balance out � and VT could find itself 1-4 in close games. Had the Hokies gone 1-4 in those games instead of 4-1, they would have finished 12-16 (5-11 ACC) and not gone to postseason play. My, that sounds a lot different, doesn't it?

Virginia Tech played 30 games this year, a total of 1,200 minutes of basketball. Because of what happened in one minute and 22 seconds out of that 1,200 minutes, VT had what was perceived as a successful season. It just as easily couldn't have been, and might not be next year.

Time and again, message board posters and I have referred to Virginia Tech as a "sleeping giant" in basketball. That somnambulant state mostly refers to the Virginia Tech fan base, which had lost all interest in the men's basketball program over the years, a spark that even Big East membership couldn�t provide.

Take a look at this (admittedly poorly constructed) panoramic view of Cassell Coliseum moments before tipoff of a home game against Fordham on January 19th, 2000, VT's last season in the Atlantic 10. Sad, isn't it? The attendance for that game was announced as 3,341, but they must have been counting the dustbunnies under the seats, because there weren't that many people there.

Luckily, those days are gone, but they didn't go easily. Hokie attendance, as detailed in last week's TSLMail, was dismal for years. And even earlier this season, attendance was poor, despite the reported sellouts. The early out of conference games were lightly attended, and even the first-ever ACC game with UNC on December 19th wasn't filled to capacity.

The Clemson game only had about 6,000 fans in attendance, and the NC State game had about 8,000 people there, if memory and my crowd estimating skills serve correctly.

But when the Hokies returned home on January 27th, after beating #12 Georgia Tech on the road for their third straight ACC victory, they were greeted by a full house for a game against Virginia. Hokies fans never looked back, packing the house for Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, and Maryland.

The giant has awakened, at least in terms of fan support. Cassell is full again, as those of us who attended VT in the Metro Conference 1980's glory days have wished for over a decade now. The students, as usual, provided the most noise, but once the snowball picked up speed, it couldn't be stopped, and the fan turnout was critical to VT's success this year.

It goes without saying that fan support is absolutely critical to this program. Winning on the road in the ACC is hard � VT went 2-6, with wins over Miami and Georgia Tech � and you have got to be able to hold serve at home. As noted above, I think the Hokies hit the wall against Wake Forest, and the energy and noise of the Cassell Crowd were enough to get what was a worn-out team over the hump the rest of the way, enabling them to go 4-0 at home when I would have thought it was impossible, after watching them against Wake.

Cassell Coliseum now has the reputation around the ACC of being a pit. After all, Cassell is where ACC champion and NCAA tournament #1 seed Duke lost, after winning by 35 over the Hokies at home. Hokie fans need to keep it that way.

One thing is clear: if you play in the ACC and you have an overall record of .500 or better, you will go to the NIT. All you have to do is win at least four ACC games � even the worst ACC teams can do that � and you're in.

The key to postseason play, therefore, is the out of conference schedule. Not so much whom you play, but winning the ones you play in sufficient quantity to lock in that .500 record and secure an NIT invitation.

Here are VT's out of conference (OOC) records since their last appearance in the NCAA tournament.

I don't think I need to tell you that an OOC winning percentage of 56% (57-45) is not going to get it done. Losses to VMI, Western Michigan, and St. John's derailed this team from having a serious argument for an NCAA berth, because the Hokies would have been 18-10 (8-8 ACC) after losing in the first round of the ACC tournament, had they not dropped those three OOC games.

The OOC losses helped keep Tech out of the NCAA tournament this year. In future years, when you can expect the Hokies' ACC record to dip below 8-8, bad OOC losses will keep them from the NIT. And that is not acceptable. The goal is postseason play every year, and a rule of thumb is that ten wins must come from outside the conference, and at least 4-6 more from inside the conference.

The quality of the OOC schedule has to improve, too, so in years where the Hokies are on the NCAA bubble, a bad out of conference slate like this year's won't knock them off the bubble. For VT, the balancing act is to improve the OOC slate while still winning enough of them to qualify for the NIT.

By the way, don't get distressed by all of my NIT talk. The NIT goal is a minimum goal. The Hokies need to take care of business there first, and in years where they play well, have experienced players, and are lucky, the NCAA will become an option. The NCAA is always a goal, but to fall below the NIT is not acceptable.

Ah, recruiting. This is a whole other topic in itself, and we'll dedicate some ink to it in the near future, with a basketball recruiting primer that will bring everyone up to speed.

The Hokies have a very thin bench when compared to the rest of the ACC. Coleman Collins, Zabian Dowdell, Jamon Gordon, and hopefully Deron Washington can and will be able to play with almost anyone in the ACC, but over the course of a 30-game season, the rigors of playing 35 minutes a game or more wear a player down, perhaps more mentally than physically.

The Hokies were able to get stoked at home and play hard and play well, but as the season wore on, the mental fatigue started to show on the road. Tech was unable to match the intensity of their opponents.

VT needs two things: more big bodies to battle inside, and scoring punch off the bench. These are things that are going to take years to develop, and the Hokies have decided to go for the post bodies first. Virginia Tech signed two players in the fall signing period, Hyman Taylor (6-9, 235) and Terrance Vinson (6-8, 217), that will provide interior depth. The problem is that neither player is ACC-ready and will take some seasoning before they can be counted on for the complete package of defense, rebounding, and scoring. One or both of them will get major minutes right away and can provide rebounding and shot-blocking abilities, but both of them are listed as "top 300"-type recruits and are not ACC impact players.

The Hokies have one more scholarship to give for the 2005 recruiting class, which has its spring signing period in April. Then they'll have two scholarships to give for the 2006 recruiting class, as current juniors Shawn Harris and Allen Calloway finish their eligibility.

That's only a total of five scholarships over the next two recruiting classes, barring any attrition, which actually has a high probability of occurring in the case of Marquie Cooke (as noted in my last TSL Pass article, Hokies Embrace the NIT). Two of those five scholies are already earmarked for guys who will take 1-3 seasons to develop into ACC-caliber players, or so the recruiting experts say. The point is, there doesn't appear to be any immediate help on the way, and it will take time to build the program's depth through recruiting. Until then, for the next two seasons, the fab four of Collins-Gordon-Dowdell-Washington will have to carry this team.

As I said, this is a big topic, and we'll cover it in more detail soon. Scheduling and fan support aside, the best way to build an ACC program is through recruiting, and that, my friends, takes time. Hokie fans will need to be patient.

The best thing about VT's success in their inaugural ACC campaign is that the core of that success returns for two more seasons in the persons of sophomores Coleman Collins, Zabian Dowdell, and Jamon Gordon, plus freshman Deron Washington. Good fortune is at the whim of a higher power, but at least the Hokies will have the horses in the starting lineup to maintain their level of success for the next couple of years.

Whether or not they will maintain that level of success is another matter entirely. If any of the fab four suffer a serious injury, it will throw a monkey wrench into the works.

The Hokies lose Carlos Dixon and won't have Jeff King back in 2005-06. The loss of Dixon hurts, because his three-point shooting ability keeps defenses from keying on just Dowdell on the perimeter. King's loss won't be as critical, because the Hokies will have more big bodies to assist Coleman Collins inside.

Markus Sailes, who started all 29 games as a sophomore for VT in the 2003-04 season and was third on the team in minutes at 32.0 per game, will return next year from a medical redshirt. Sailes only averaged 4.9 points per game in the 03-04 season and is known mainly for his defense, where he should provide a potent combo with Jamon Gordon. But don't expect him to score a lot.

Barring a last-minute reversal of events, Marquie Cooke is all but out the door, so don't count on him to be here next year. All of which leaves us wondering where additional scoring is going to come from. Wynton Witherspoon is a possibility, but he needs to do a ton of work and improve his shooting percentage (32.7%).

Offensively, the Hokies won't be significantly different next year, with the exception of the loss of Dixon (to the negative) and the continued maturation of the other starters (to the positive).

Schedule-wise, the opportunity for more ACC success is there.

Home and Away: The opportunity to play both FSU and Clemson twice each is a chance to win some games. It's hard to say how good Virginia will be with a new coach, but the Hokies will get the Cavaliers in Cassell and on the road. BC and Duke are tough teams to play home and away, but overall, the home-and-away matchups bring opportunities for some wins.

Home Only: Georgia Tech will lose a ton of talent (BJ Elder, Isma'il Muhammed, Will Bynum, Luke Schenscher, and Anthony McHenry, plus possibly junior Jarrett Jack), making them prime fodder for a Cassell Coliseum ambush. NC State and UNC, on the other hand, will be stiff challenges.

Away Only: Maryland and Wake Forest are as close to sure-fire losses as it gets, but the Hokies will again have an opportunity to win one in Coral Gables. VT lost to Miami six straight times prior to this season but had the 'Canes number this year, winning both.

At this point in the program, I think it's realistic for the Hokies to shoot for six ACC wins at home and two on the road, and with that schedule, it's doable. But as noted, an injury or a turn of bad fortune could spell 4-12 in the ACC, instead of 8-8. Good fortune could boost the Hokies as high as 10-6, but that will be tough to do, to say the least.

Just because the Hokies are bringing back a good core of players, success matching or exceeding what they achieved this year should not be expected or demanded. It may happen, but the line for the Hokies is razor-thin, and they might fall on the wrong side next year. Only time will tell.

The great thing about this season? In one year, the Hokies got where most people thought it would take them 2-3 years go get: .500 in the ACC, fourth in the conference (it's still amazing to type that), and into postseason play. The bad thing? VT might slip next year, or at the very least, stagnate.

But to paraphrase Neil Armstrong, the Hokie has landed. That's one small step for Seth Greenberg and his players, and one giant leap for the program. From here on, continued success is three-pronged:

• Maintain the homecourt advantage, and therefore fan interest.
• Win more out of conference games, leading to annual postseason play.
• Build a roster with ACC-caliber talent gradually through recruiting.

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