There is no question that the Hokies, along with fellow raft boat survivor Miami, have been the surprises thus far in the ACC, as well as nationally. Tech has catapulted to fourth place in the conference, and three of their four losses in conference play have come against the "Big Three" of North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke, who happen to occupy the first three spots in the conference.

It was just about this time last year, at the beginning of February when the Hokies faced Providence at home with an 8-10 record, that the team started its unlikely late season run in their final Big East conference season. The Hokies went into that Friar game with a 1-6 conference mark, and were simply trying to win enough games to get to New York City and avoid another Big East cellar dwelling finish. That team won six of the next nine to finish 14-13 (7-9 Big East) and make the BE Tournament, where they went 1-1.

This season, the expectations have been increased as the team hits that same stretch run. Some are even daring to use the word that is mostly unheard of around here in recent years. Is Virginia Tech a "bubble" team? To suggest that does not necessarily become proof of one's losing contact with reality. While the NCAA tournament is still something that is a definite long shot, one can make an argument that this team has an opportunity to play its way into the NIT. To even think that the faithful will show an eagerness to keep up with the RPI of the team and carefully peruse the schedule of the Hokies is a most welcome development. To see people invest in every individual game at this point in the season is a surprise to most everyone.

Finding the ingredients for this surprising success for the Hokies, while getting out your tarot cards to see if there is some 'Nawlins shimmy on the horizon for the team's chances at post-season play, invites some bewilderment at how it all has happened to this point.

Much has been made of the struggles of this team to rebound effectively, and the statistics bear that out. The Hokies rank dead last in the conference in rebounding, hardly a surprise to anyone that has closely followed the team. Tech is dead last in the conference in total number of rebounds per game, averaging just 32.5 per game. The Hokies are also dead last in defensive rebounds per game, and rank only ahead of Florida State in offensive rebounding in the conference.

Throw all of that together in your rebounding gumbo and you have a team that is eleventh in the conference in rebounding margin. Not only are they last, but they also are lagging greatly behind the other conference teams. Only two ACC teams not named Virginia Tech have a negative rebounding margin at this point, and they are Virginia at -0.3 and North Carolina State at -0.6. Then there are the Hokies, who are being outrebounded by 4.7 rebounds per game.

Ouch. That isn't just a problem area, but something close to seismic proportions. In fact, Virginia Tech has won the rebounding battle in only three of 20 games thus far.

While that area continues to be a source of great concern, it has been mostly neutralized by the outstanding job that the team has done in two areas: creating turnovers and protecting the ball, something the Hokies have proven to be most capable of this year. Tech ranks behind only N.C. State in the conference in fewest turnovers per game, while coming in just behind North Carolina in the conference in forcing turnovers per game.

With a turnover margin of +6.54 per game, the Hokies are almost three-and-a-half turnovers better than the second-place Wolfpack in the conference in turnover margin. That huge turnover margin difference almost cancels out the significant rebounding disadvantage that the team finds itself fighting. If you can't get additional shot opportunities by rebounding, one way to get them is by protecting the ball better than your opponents and creating turnovers, something this team is quite adept at.

The puzzling thing at this point in the season is how the Hokies continue to win conference games, once the turnover margin is taken off the table, effectively neutralized by the rebounding deficiency. There is no other real team stat where the team excels at, instead being several other areas where the team lags in the second half of the conference.

The team is ninth in three-point field goal percentage, tenth in field goal percentage and tenth in free throw shooting percentage. The Hokies are last in the conference in scoring offense, tenth in scoring margin and tenth in field goal percentage defense.

Only in steals, where the Hokies rank second in the conference behind North Carolina, while having the # 1 and # 2 ranked players in the conference individually in Jamon Gordan and Carlos Dixon, does the team have another statistical area that leaps out. Those steals are folded into your turnover margin, not even representing a stand alone stat that perhaps tells the story of how the team has been as successful as it has to this point.

Instead, with the puzzling nature of the team stats that shows the Hokies still grappling to make their mark on the conference, the key component that has probably shaped conference play has been the Hokies ability to win close games. With two one-point victories to go along with a two-point win over Clemson, this team has prevailed in every close game that went down to the wire.

When trying to get out the crystal ball and forecast whether the team is a legitimate post-season contender, all the statistical analysis in the world cannot help bring clarity when you find yourself winning close games in the final minute. Tech has done that on three occasions, and perhaps it is because a team that takes care of the basketball exceedingly well during the game, while proving it can consistently create turnovers by their opponent, is an occurrence that takes on much greater significance in the last four minutes of the game.

We do not know how many victories it will take for this team to get to postseason play. In a year in which many experts expected the Hokies to merely serve as a sure conference win for ACC teams, this team now finds itself scrapping and clawing its way toward an exciting finish.

During the final seven games of conference play, the Hokies are on the road for four of them, starting tonight in College Park, when they take on Maryland. While they do have more road games left to play than home encounters, three of those road games are against opponents that the Hokies have already beaten. Tech dispatched Clemson, Virginia and North Carolina State earlier in Blacksburg.

At this midpoint stage of conference play, it's clear that three teams have risen to the apex of the conference. North Carolina, Duke and Wake are the three best teams in the conference, while all remaining teams appear capable of beating each other at any venue, based on that particular day.

One advantage that Virginia Tech might hold down the stretch is their schedule, the road grind notwithstanding. Only Clemson and Virginia Tech, among all remaining conference teams outside of Wake, UNC and Duke, play only one remaining game against one of the "Big Three" of the Tar Heels, 'Deacs and Blue Devils. Every other opponent has at least two games against that trio. Furthermore, the Hokies will play only four total games against that same trio of schools. Clemson is the only other non-Big Three program to play the same number of games. Maryland, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina State, Miami and Florida State each will play five games against the three strongest members of the conference.

This final stretch of games will determine if the Hokies are a true post-season team - even if it is the NIT - or an imposter who crashed the party. In a conference that has shown how unpredictable it can be this year and how closely balanced it is outside of the Big Three, it might just come down to the final game of conference play. The Hokies have demonstrated that they are not quite ready for the 'Heels, Blue Devils or 'Deacs. They have proven that they can do just fine with the rest of the conference. In the end, that game against the top tier trifecta that the Hokies won't play might end up as big an influence as any concerning any possible March travel plans.

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