When thinking about the hotspots of high school football talent in the United States, the Commonwealth of Virginia does not initially come to mind. Florida, Texas and California, with their large populations, are regarded as the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. They each have enough players to support more than one big time program. Each of those states has more than one big time college football program within its borders, and those programs are maintained by in state talent.

The state of Florida provides for perennial powers Miami, Florida and Florida State, while Texas helps furnish players for Texas and Texas A&M, with Oklahoma and other top programs landing their share of players as well. California feeds national champion USC, as well as a rising Cal program. However, if you are going to base a state’s high school talent on the success of the in-state programs, Virginia is only behind these three states.

This article looks at recruiting classes dating back to 1996, so let’s go back to that year and take a look at what both Virginia Tech and UVA have done on the gridiron since then.

The Hokies have certainly done their part, going to a bowl game every year in that span (1996-present). Tech has also won three conference championships, two Big East and one ACC, been to three BCS games, and played for the national championship in 1999. Also in that span, Tech has gone to three Gator Bowls, which are played on New Years Day. Just three times since 1996 have the Hokies been negated to minor bowl status, those coming in 1998, 2002 and 2003. Virginia Tech has won 84 games since 1996, and lost just 28.

The Hokies have enjoyed unprecedented success over the past decade or so and have definitely been the elite program in the state, but UVA hasn’t exactly been an ACC doormat. The Cavaliers have won 66 games in that span, with 44 losses. They have also been to seven bowl games since 1996. Those aren’t Virginia Tech type numbers, but they are the mark of a solid football program.

Both programs have combined for 150 victories and 16 bowl appearances over the past nine seasons, and perhaps the main reason for this is the fact that both schools do a good job of keeping high school players in-state. The spoils of a fertile recruiting ground that was once used by traditional powers such as Penn State are now difficult to obtain for schools outside of Virginia.

Every year, Doug Doughty of the Roanoke Times comes out with his list of the Top 25 recruits in Virginia. While just one man’s opinion, his list sparks a lot of topics on Virginia Tech recruiting message boards. Conversations vary from how Tech will do head-to-head against UVa to how many prospects will head out of state. This article will attempt to examine some of the trends in where Doughty’s Top 25 decide to play their college football each season.

Since the 1996 recruiting class, 167 of the top 250 prospects in Virginia have selected either Virginia Tech or UVa. That’s a full two-thirds of Virginia’s top high school players that stay in-state. Taking a closer look in the table below shows that there have been some peaks and valleys, but it is clear that in recent years the success of Virginia Tech and UVa has been paying off.

From 1996-2000, 75 of 125 (60%) prospects stayed in state, but since 2001, that number rose to 92 of 125 (73.6%) prospects. Only once in the last five years have out of state programs signed more than 10 of the top 25, as you can see in our next table.

Since 1996, the Hokies have landed more in-state recruits than UVa seven out of ten times. That’s because Frank Beamer has always had a stronger focus on the state of Virginia than his counterparts at UVa, George Welsh and Al Groh. UVa is a school that is known to everyone throughout the country because of their academics and has always been able to go out of state to recruit because of their national stature. Tech has not had that luxury. Even inside the Commonwealth, Virginia Tech was not a household name until Michael Vick came along.

And with that recognition came more recruits, as you can see in the table above. Out of the 89 recruits that Tech has signed from Virginia in the past ten years, 50 have come in the past five years. It’s not a coincidence that this jump occurred shortly after Virginia Tech’s rise to national prominence. Meanwhile, UVa has landed a few more in-state recruits over the past five seasons than they had in previous years, but except for the 2002 class (Groh's first full year of recruiting), there is not a big difference.

So if these kids aren’t staying in-state to become either Hokies or ‘Hoos, then where are they going? As the table above says, 83 of 250 players have gone to destinations other than Charlottesville or Blacksburg since 1996. The following table shows that there are a few select schools that can, or have been able to in the past, come into Virginia and get players.

North Carolina and Penn State easily top the list. North Carolina is not surprising considering they are a high profile school that borders Virginia. In fact, many high schools in Virginia are closer to Chapel Hill than they are to Blacksburg and Charlottesville. However, with the rise of Virginia Tech football, and the decline of North Carolina football, the Tar Heels haven’t been able to come into Virginia and have the success that they once did. In fact, the tables are being turned, with Virginia Tech landing highly rated North Carolina players such as Justin Harper, George Bell and Michael Hinton over the past few years.

Penn State has made a living off of players from the Commonwealth of Virginia, or as least, they used to. Like UNC, Penn State has grabbed 13 players from Virginia in the past 10 years. However, only five of those players have come since the 2001 recruiting class.

Before Virginia Tech football emerged and Penn State began to decline, the Nittany Lions could come into Virginia and recruit just about whenever they felt like it. 1996 and 1997 were banner years in recruiting Virginia for Penn State, signing two of the top ten recruits in 1996 and three of the top ten in 1997. They also signed Anthony King, the #17 player in Virginia, in 1996. Some of those guys, such as David Macklin and Bhawoh Jue, turned out to be big time players and still play in the NFL today.

Over time however, Penn State’s success in Virginia has run its course. With the Nittany Lions’ struggling to play .500 ball each year, and the question of when Paterno will retire, recruiting has worsened in Happy Valley. With the emergence of Virginia Tech as a football power, as well as the increasing recruiting success of Al Groh, Penn State’s success in Virginia has come to an end, although they did succeed in signing players such as Michael Robinson, Levi Brown and Terrell Golden since 2001. (What were you thinking, fellas?) Over the past two recruiting classes, Penn State has signed only one player from Virginia, Kevin Cousins, the #23 player in the 2005 class.

Notre Dame has had some success in Virginia as well. Of course, Notre Dame’s reputation will allow whoever is coaching in South Bend to have recruiting success just about anywhere in the nation. The Irish have come into Virginia and nabbed a few players, notably Julius Jones, but they will never attempt to establish a major presence here because of their ability to recruit nationally.

Now let’s talk about some big-timers from Virginia who escaped the grasp of the in-state programs and headed out-of-state. As noted above, Julius Jones went to Notre Dame despite his older brother Thomas being a star at UVa. Jones had a great career at Notre Dame and now plays for the Dallas Cowboys. Chris Perry is another player who comes to mind. Perry was an All-American tailback at Michigan and was a first round draft pick of the Bengals. Or how about Brandon Royster, the #1 player in Virginia in 2000? Royster headed off to Stanford because of their academics, converted from tailback to wide receiver, and became a career backup. Sure, he never panned out at Stanford, but weren’t we all wishing we had gotten him at the time?

Perhaps the biggest gem that went out of state was wide receiver Plaxico Burress from Green Run High School in Virginia Beach (1996 recruiting class). I remember watching Burress at Michigan State and thinking he might be the best college wide receiver I had ever seen. He no longer fits that description now that Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Williams have come along, but he was big time and has had a very good career for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Think the Hokies would have liked to have had him in 1997 when Sean Scales went down? Or in 1999, when a player like Burress could have potentially been the difference in the National Championship game?

With Virginia Tech and UVa established as football programs, for the most part there will be very few top notch recruits heading out of state in the near future. However, there will be peaks and valleys, and some years will see more recruits leave Virginia than others. There is no real reason for this; it’s just how things work. 2006 could be another such year. The top prospect in the state, wide receiver Percy Harvin, has been a life-long Florida State fan. Harvin likes the ‘Noles because, we are told, he was a fan of Peter Warrick and he likes their helmets. Not exactly good reasons on which to base the decision of where to spend the next four or five years of your life, but that’s college football recruiting and an example of the thought process of some 17 year old kids.

Harvin excluded, most of the battles for top prospects from Virginia will be between Virginia Tech and UVa in the near future. Both programs have coaches that have either revived the program in the case of Al Groh, or have taken the program to new heights in the case of Frank Beamer. Both Scott Stadium and Lane Stadium have been expanded, and Lane is undergoing yet another overhaul. The two programs reside in an expanded ACC that has taken its place as one of the premier conferences in the nation. The competition is so furious between the in-state schools that outsiders don’t see the need to get involved. It’s sort of like a dog fight…don’t be an idiot and stick your hand in there, just let them fight it out.

That brings us to another question that is brought up from time to time on the recruiting message board. Does the state of Virginia have enough talent to support two top programs? It depends on your definition of "top" I suppose, but for the sake of argument we’ll say Top 10. And the answer simply is no. While Virginia is a very good state for recruiting, it does not have the depth of talent to supply two top programs. Very occasionally, such as the Class of 2002, Virginia has a very deep class from which both program can fill many of the needs of both teams, but not very often.

With the general lack of depth of the Virginia Top 25, it will be very difficult for either Virginia or Virginia Tech to ever sustain themselves in the Top 10 for a number of seasons. See 2001-2003 for the Hokies. While there was a lot of talent at some positions on the team, Tech was seriously undermanned at crucial positions such as linebacker, defensive tackle and offensive line. The Hokies were back in the Top 10 again in 2004 and likely will be in 2005, but that could change quickly if recruits at certain positions don’t pan out (hint: offensive line). If UVa manages to make their way into the Top 10 at some point, they will find it difficult to stay there as well.