Virginia Tech started out conference play by winning the turnover margin in
their first six conference games, yet have seen that advantage dissipate almost
entirely over the second half of conference play. For the season, in conference
games, the Hokies have 217 turnovers now and have forced their opponents into
237, which averages out to a +1.34 difference, hardly as good as where this team
stood earlier, when the turnover margin was almost a full 9 turnovers per game
in favor of the Hokies.
As we repeat ad nauseam, the Hokies have to force turnovers to balance the
weak rebounding of the team. The rebounding problems continue, as witnessed by
Clemson winning that battle on the boards by nine Tuesday night.
If the Hokies are forced to garner the majority of their points in the half
court setting, then most would agree that isn’t this team’s strong suit. The
team has to get out and get some easy baskets in transition, something we saw in
abundance earlier in the season. The team used its defensive quickness and
athleticism, along with a healthy dose of their half court trap, to force
mistakes and get some open court looks. That half court trapping pressure, along
with the team using its quickness and athleticism to harass ballhandlers and
overplay passing lanes, has been largely missing recently.
Why is that? And most importantly, what can be done to reverse this second
half trend and get this team some easy opportunities and take their opponents
out of what they want to do more often?
That answer isn’t an easy one, and the Clemson game showed just how fragile
a lineup composition Greenberg has, and how easily the tempo of the game is far
too dependant on his starting five logging big minutes.
Greenberg cannot afford for his sole, reliable big man to sit on the bench
next to him for 12 minutes of the first half with foul trouble, as was the case
with sophomore Coleman Collins. Greenberg cannot afford for one of his few
playmakers, and arguably his best defensive player, to also sit out the last 7
minutes of the first half with the same foul trouble, as was the case with
sophomore guard Jamon Gordon.
The delicate balance of the Hokies is constructed with the idea of having the
starting five play the large majority of minutes. The game with Clemson was
going reasonably well until Collins, and then subsequently Gordon, went to the
bench. The Hokies scored just nine points during a thirteen minute, seven-second
stretch that went through the conclusion of the first half and into the first
three minutes of the second half. Coincidentally, Collins was on the bench for
almost this entire time and Gordon for a healthy portion of it.
With Collins on the bench, Tech has no suitable replacement that can keep
opposing defenses honest. Instead, we see teams jumping off the high screen to
double Zabian Dowdell and Carlos Dixon when they curl for shot opportunities.
These defenses would rather leave the screener completely unattended, rather
than allow Dowdell or Dixon to have the ball in their hands. There is no
low-post scoring option, so opponents defend the perimeter and completely eschew
dropping down to help in the post.
Defensively though, this is where Greenberg and this team face the biggest
challenge. It is on defense where we see possibly an even greater need for more
big bodies that can defend post players and power forwards. Whether it is Sean
May, Shelden Williams, Eric Williams, or in this case Sharrod Ford, the lack of
legitimate, available large bodies inside to defend is greatly handicapping this
team right now. We see James Mays of Clemson, who comes off the bench, back down
Deron Washington with two dribbles to shoot a point-blank jump hook over him,
helped by the fact that he is two inches taller and 40 pounds heavier.
Jeff King is a battler and hustler and brings the requisite strength to the
table needed. He has given the team some good minutes inside and has been
helpful. But King is only 6-5 and is forced to guard opponents who usually play
the center position, easily giving up 4-5 inches. Greenberg can rarely even
afford the luxury of playing King at the forward position and is instead forced
to watch him try and defend the center position at 6-5.
Tuesday night, after the first half foul trouble, we saw a lineup for Tech
that featured the 6-5 King at center, while wing player Carlos Dixon manned the
power forward position. That is far from the ideal lineup that you want to be
playing with in such a crucial game, but that’s the hand this team has to play
with.
Because of this lack of size inside, Greenberg has to make accommodations
that affect the rate at which the team forces turnovers. With a team that isn’t
capable of defending opposing players in the post one-on-one, Tech is forced to
double-team down in the post. This strategy is designed to both help keep your
one legitimate post player out of foul trouble, and keep opposing post players
from dominating the game. In doubling down with their guards, the Hokies aren't
extending their defense as far, nor applying as much ball pressure as we saw
earlier in the season. Thus we see a game like last night in which Clemson gets
scores of open looks from behind the arc, not because Tech wasn’t defending
the three, but rather because they left someone open every time while sending a
defensive player down to double Sharrod Ford when he received the ball.
This sends the team into a reaction mode on almost every possession and
Greenberg just doesn’t have enough weapons quite yet to be able to
aggressively defend opponents or try and dictate the game defensively.
Because of that, a team that so badly needs to get out in transition and get
some easy scoring opportunities is instead forced to back off the reins so that
players are in a position to quickly get down into the post to help defensively.
This team’s bread-and-butter from earlier in the season, when we witnessed
the Hokies constantly harassing teams into turnovers while igniting the running
game, has been muffled almost to a whimper recently. Greenberg essentially has
to pick his poison defensively, and his hands are tied and his options greatly
limited while he grapples to find a scenario for defensive success that can
still be the ingredient that propels this team into postseason play.
An Up-to-Date Look at the ACC Race
The Hokies have now fallen into a three-way tie for fifth place in the
conference with Maryland and Miami. Tech holds a tiebreaker advantage over the
Hurricanes, and the Terrapins visit Blacksburg on Saturday in both teams’
final conference game. North Carolina State is also a factor as well, with the
Wolfpack only a half-game behind the trio.
In fact, we could see a four-way tie for fourth place in the conference,
which would send the conference deep into its tiebreaker format to sort through
the mess in time for the conference tournament. The first five finishers in
regular-season conference play get first round byes in the newly formatted
conference tournament, which opens play on Thursday, March 10.