Generally this is the time of year that the Hokie Nation begins to worry about the latest position change on the football team and gearing up the tailgating crew for the spring football game. A small minority would discuss what had to happen for the Virginia Tech men’s basketball team to back their way into the Big East Tournament. This year however, that small minority has grown into a fan base that is discussing something a lot more important…what it will take for the Hokies to get an invitation to The Big Dance.

First of all, it's important to consider the fact that things could change very quickly. There is no way to know how the Hokies are going to fare the remainder of the season, or how any team will fare. Going into the Maryland game two weeks ago, the Hokies were starting to be mentioned by the ESPN bracketologists for the first time as a possible contender for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. After the Hokies dropped road games at Maryland and Virginia, Tech was considered to be firmly off the bubble. Tech stood at 12-10 overall, and 5-6 in ACC play. And things were going to get worse, because the Duke Blue Devils were coming to Cassell to hand the Hokies another whipping.

Of course, that didn’t happen. VT shocked Duke last Thursday night in front of a national television audience and surprised a lot of people yet again two days later, when they showed no signs of a letdown in a 71-58 thumping of a solid Miami team that was fighting for their own NCAA Tournament lives. After two such wins, the Hokies find themselves back on the bubble. How far Tech is inside the bubble is arguable, and the answer known only by the NCAA selection committee.

To project Tech’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament, we must first project how the remainder of the regular season will go. The Hokies close the season with road trips to NC State and Clemson, then host Maryland in the season finale. The Hokies could conceivably win all three or lose all three, but likely it will be somewhere in between. It’s time to break this down into scenarios and check out the Hokies’ chances.

If the Hokies win one more game this year, including the ACC Tournament, they would have a total or 15 wins on the season. One more win in the regular season and then a loss in the first round of the ACC Tournament would put Tech at 15-13. Losing out in the regular season, winning an ACC tournament game, and losing in the 2nd ACC tournament game would put Tech at 15-14. Obviously, none of that is good enough for the NCAA Tournament, but what about the NIT?

We all know Tech’s history of getting snubbed by the NIT. As recently as last season the Hokies had a chance to make the NIT but didn’t. Last season the NIT chose three Big East teams that finished lower than the Hokies in the Big East standings…West Virginia, Rutgers and Villanova. The Hokies had won both meetings against West Virginia and had taken two out of three against Rutgers.

Going back another 10 years, the 1993-94 team was one of the most deserving NIT teams that you will see, but got left out in the cold. That team finished 18-10 overall, and 7-7 in a Metro Conference that was ranked 4th in the nation. The Hokies had a top 70 RPI rating, and were ranked #56 in the nation by Sagarin. But they were left at home, with the NIT instead opting to take a 15-14 Southern Miss team instead, a Southern Miss team that finished next-to-last in the Metro.

Of course, we must also consider the fact that the ACC has a history of getting all of their qualified teams into the postseason. Since Florida State joined the ACC for the 1991-92 season, only one ACC team that has qualified for postseason play has not been selected. That was the 2002-03 Clemson team, who finished 5-11 in the ACC and 15-13 overall. Let’s take a look at just a few of the teams from the ACC who have played in the NIT since 1992...

Assuming the Hokies win one more game, they would have very similar records to the teams in that table. In other words, they would look exactly like an ACC NIT team, except they would have a better ACC record than any team on that list with the exception of the 1992 UVA squad.

However, if Tech were to win only one game for the remainder of the season, their RPI rating would not look very good at all. After Wednesday night's games, the Hokies were 107 in the RPI according to ESPN.com's "Inside RPI." That’s good for next-to-last in the ACC, only above Florida State (#147). Winning just one game the remainder of the season would not help that rating.

While one would think that the Hokies would have a better RPI at 14-10 playing an ACC schedule than 16-15 playing a Big East schedule, that is not the case. Last year’s squad finished with an RPI rating of 94 in the nation, but still got left out of the NIT. So while many people think that another win would lock the Hokies into an NIT spot, think again.

So would the Hokies get left out of the NIT yet again? At least a 7-9 record in the ACC would say no. But considering the RPI rating, and the history of the NIT leaving Tech out, they are as strong a candidate to be left out in the cold that the ACC has had in years.

If the Hokies win two more games, that would put them at 16 total wins for the season. If both of those wins come in the regular season, with no ACC Tournament wins, Tech’s record would stand at 16-12 overall, 9-7 in ACC play. One more win in the regular season and one in the ACC tournament would have the Hokies standing at 16-13 overall, 8-8 in ACC play.

Would that record be good enough for an NCAA bid? Many Hokies wearing orange and maroon colored glasses would say yes, but let’s take a closer look. First of all, let’s take a look at the teams who finished 8-8 in the ACC since 1992 and got an invitation to The Big Dance…

After looking at that table, consider the fact that only two ACC teams since 1992 have finished with an 8-8 conference record and not gotten into the NCAA Tournament. The 1995 Georgia Tech team finished 8-8 in conference and 18-12 overall, but didn’t get an invitation. However, the team that is most comparable to the 2004-05 Hokies is the 1992 Virginia Cavaliers.

In 1992, Virginia finished 8-8 in the ACC and 15-13 overall. That is very similar to the record the Hokies are going to have this year if they win only one or two more games. And guess what. Because of their overall record, the ’Hoos didn’t make the Big Dance. Instead they went to the junior prom, beating Notre Dame for the NIT championship to finish the season 20-13.

So it’s pretty obvious, to me at least, that the Hokies have to win more than two games make the Big Dance. 16 wins is not going to cut it. It is true that the 1994 Maryland team made the NCAA Tournament with a 16-11 record, but one occasion in the past 13 years certainly does not ensure that the Hokies will receive the same treatment.

However, with two more wins the Hokies are (historically speaking) a stone-cold lock for the NIT, should the NCAA Selection Committee pass them over.

Now we’re talking. Most likely, the Hokies have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament if, and only if, they win at least three more games this season. Winning the last three regular season games, then losing the first ACC tournament game, would put the Hokies at 17-11 overall, 10-6 in ACC play. Winning two regular season games and then winning one game in the ACC Tournament would give Tech a record of 17-12, 9-7 in ACC play.

The first fact that we need to look at is that since FSU joined the league in 1992, no ACC team has finished 10-6 in conference play and been left out of the NCAA Tournament. Zero. So if Tech manages to win out in the regular season, a feat that is doable, but not very likely, then history is on their side. Let’s take a look at the list of teams who have finished 8-8 or better in the conference, but did not make the Big Dance.

Notice that the list isn’t very long. The ACC is the most prestigious basketball conference in history, and generally their teams are taken care of, deservedly or not. With a 15-12 overall, record, it is easy to see why the 1992 Virginia squad didn’t make the Big Dance. However the 1995 Georgia Tech and 2000 UVA teams are a bit harder to explain. After being passed over by the NCAA selection committee, Georgia Tech turned down a bid to the NIT.

The rejection of UVA in 2000 is extremely odd. The ’Hoos finished the season tied for 3rd in the ACC, but got left out of the tournament. The Cavaliers had an RPI of 53 and were 4-4 against the RPIs Top 50. They were 4-6 in their last ten games, which isn't great, but it's not a disaster. Their strength of schedule was 111, which may have been their undoing. (VT's is 119 so far this season.)

So if you think the Hokies are a lock for the Big Dance if they finish 9-7 in the ACC, think again. Even if the Hokies do go 9-7 and win 17 games, they won’t be as deserving of a bid as that 2000 UVA team. Not to mention that their RPI will still leave many people scratching their heads, as will the loss to VMI.

On Selection Sunday, when Digger Phelps and Jay Bilas are going over the goods and the bads of the bubble teams, the teams they will mention won’t have VMI under their “bad losses” category. Most of the bad losses of NCAA Tournament teams come to teams ranked 100-200 in the RPI. VMI is ranked 315 out of 329 teams.

Winning the ACC Tournament would automatically get Tech in the Big Dance, but that isn’t a realistic goal. If the Hokies were to run the table in the regular season and then win a game in the ACC Tournament, I think it would be safe to say that Tech would definitely garner an invitation. However, that would require Tech to win 6 consecutive games, going back to the win over Duke. That is a highly unlikely scenario, although not impossible.

As discussed above, probably the only other chance Tech has to make the Big Dance is to finish either 10-6 or 9-7 in league play, and win a total of 17 games. Going 10-6 in the ACC with 17 total wins would mean winning out in the regular season and dropping the first game in the ACC Tournament. Going 9-7 in league play, but still reaching the magic number of 17 would require a win in the ACC Tournament. So which scenario would be more beneficial for Tech? The 10-6 mark is better in league play and would guarantee a 4th place finish in the ACC for the Hokies. On the other hand, the selection committee loves wins in conference tournaments.

I would lean towards a 10-6 mark in conference play as most important. Remember, a 10-6 ACC team has never been passed over by the NCAA selection committee. The ACC will place more than four teams in the Big Dance, and the selection committee would catch a lot of heat for choosing teams such as Maryland and Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech, who would finish behind the Hokies in this scenario. Also, if Tech wins out, obviously their RPI would be much better than what it is currently. Before the Duke win, the Hokies were 134 in the RPI. After knocking off Duke and Miami, Tech moved up to 100. They have since fallen to 107, but winning three straight would have to take Tech up 20 spots, at least.

However, there is one last fact that we must bring up. The lowest ranked RPI team ever to make the NCAA Tournament field was New Mexico in 1999. New Mexico entered the Big Dance ranked #74 in the RPI. That doesn't look good for VT, but the encouraging news is that New Mexico team had a strength of schedule of 142, far worse than VT's current 119, and New Mexico "boasted" victories that year over seven teams ranked #250 or lower by the RPI ... and they lost to #233 Hawaii.

Tech has games against NC State, Clemson and Maryland remaining in the regular season. Those teams are ranked 89, 90 and 36 respectively in the latest RPI rankings, again per ESPN.com. That will more than likely not be enough for the Hokies to find themselves in the top 70 at season’s end. They are going to have to make a run in the ACC Tournament.

Providing the Hokies take care of their end of the deal, and that’s a big if, this is shaping up to be quite a battle between the ACC's history of placing teams in the tournament, versus the RPI. The history of the most prestigious conference in the land says the Hokies are in. The RPI says the Hokies are out. Something’s gotta give.