Sugar Bowl Game Analysis
by Will Stewart, TechSideline.com, 1/6/05

The Hokies lost this one by a mere three points, and in the aftermath, it has been convenient to point to Jesse Allen's dropped touchdown pass and Brandon Pace's missed field goal as the two major plays that separated the Hokies from a landmark victory. Truth be told though, the Hokies shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in this game, mostly on offense. In the end, I think it came down to a simple case of normally-reliable Hokie players not having a good game and not executing well enough to win.

During their eight-game winning streak, the Hokies had shown an uncanny knack for making big plays at the right time. The best examples are Josh Hyman's first long TD catch against UVa, and Eddie Royal's game-winning catch against Miami. Those were two instances in which VT was presented with an opportunity – a short field – and immediately seized it.

In this game, though, the Hokies squandered many offensive opportunities and often derailed positive momentum before it could build. Having said that, Virginia Tech didn't lose just because of their own faults. Auburn had a big hand in Tech's loss, and the Tigers were at least as good in this game as USC was in the season opener, maybe better. That's a complete team that just beat VT in the Sugar Bowl.

Lost Chances and Short-Circuited Momentum

As I mentioned in the opener, the drop by Allen and the miss by Pace stand out. But the truth is, there were many, many other instances where the Hokies shot themselves in the foot or did not capitalize on opportunities. Here's the list.

  • First quarter: After Auburn went up 3-0, Eddie Royal returned the kickoff 48 yards to Auburn's 49-yard line. Jason Murphy held on the next play, pushing VT back to the Hokie 41, and two plays later, Bryan Randall threw his first interception. On the INT, it appeared that Randall thought Justin Harper was going to turn his route inside, and when Harper went up field instead, Randall's pass went straight to Junior Rosegreen. The pass looked horrible, but I think it was just a simple case of Harper and Randall not being on the same page (too bad, because I think Harper blew by Rosegreen while Rosegreen was reading Randall's eyes).

  • Second quarter: With Auburn up 6-0, the Tigers punted, and Mike Imoh took the punt on a reverse and returned it 25 yards to Auburn's 35-yard line. But Jimmy Williams was whistled for a push in the back on the play, and the Hokies set up on their 24-yard line, instead.

  • Second quarter: Despite the gaffe above, the Hokies drove down to Auburn's 2-yard line, where they got a first and goal. After an Imoh rush for no gain, an incomplete pass, and a Randall QB draw for one yard, the Hokies went for it on fourth and goal from the 1. Randall threw it slightly behind fullback Jesse Allen, who got his hands on it but dropped it.

  • Second quarter: On their last possession of the half, down 9-0, the Hokies started on their own 20-yard line, and by virtue of a spectacular 23-yard catch and run by Royal and a 21-yard scramble by Randall, had a first down at the Auburn 36. After an incomplete pass, Jimmy Martin false started, pushing Tech back to the 41. On third and 15, Randall had an open Eddie Royal on the sidelines near the first-down marker, but overthrew Royal out of bounds. The Hokies punted.

  • Third/Fourth Quarter: After Jimmy Williams picked off Auburn's Jason Campbell, setting the Hokies up at Auburn's 32-yard line, the Hokies drove to the Auburn 6, where they faced third and goal. Both Justin Harper and Josh Morgan appeared to be open in the end zone, particularly Harper, but Randall's pass sailed out of the back of the end zone. On the next play, Brandon Pace left a 23-yard field goal attempt wide left.

  • Fourth Quarter: The Hokies finally broke through, getting a clutch touchdown on a 29-yard reception by Josh Morgan. With a chance to cut the lead to one score with a 2-point conversion, the Hokies failed to hit the pass from Randall to Richard Johnson. Had this play worked, the score would have been 16-8, and Morgan's 80-yard TD reception a few minutes later would have set up another 2-point conversion attempt, this one to tie the ballgame.

That's a sad tale of blown chances and squandered opportunities. It seemed as if every time the Hokies made a play or got something going, they blew it with a penalty or a bad play, never allowing them to get momentum going.

Affecting the Outcome

It's easy to look at the missed chances and say, "If they had just made that play …" but it's hard to say how the game would have gone, had things been closer. The Hokie defense did an outstanding job of keeping the Tigers out of the end zone in the first half, holding the score to 9-0, and I talked to a Tech fan at half time and said, "VT's in good shape, but Auburn gets the ball to start the second half. If they score a touchdown, Tech's in big trouble."

And score a TD Auburn did (more on that later). With the 16-0 lead, the Tigers continued to run a balanced offense for the remainder of the third quarter, but didn't have much success with it. After the TD, their other two third-quarter possessions yielded two rushes for 1 yard and three passes that resulted in a sack, an incompletion, and an interception.

When the 16-0 lead lasted into the fourth quarter, Auburn went into their shell, relying solely on the rushing game for their first three possessions of the fourth quarter, in which they carried the ball 15 times for 51 yards and passed just once, for a 7-yard completion (on 3rd and 7, unfortunately).

The Tigers no doubt would have conducted their offense differently in the fourth quarter, had the game been closer. So it's hard to say what would have happened, had Jesse Allen and Brandon Pace made the plays they were called to make.

I sure would like to have found out, though.

Hokie Defense Plays Well, for the Most Part

Much has been made in the media of the five big plays Auburn's offense had, the ones that went for over 20 yards and all led to Auburn scores. Here they are:

  • First quarter: The Tigers opened with a 35-yard pass and a 31-yard run. They scored a field goal and went up 3-0.

  • First quarter: Campbell completed a 23-yard pass to Courtney Taylor on 3rd and 16. Auburn went on to kick a field goal and go up 6-0.

  • Second quarter: On 3rd and 7, Campell hit Taylor with a 37-yarder to the Hokie 26 yard line. Auburn kicked a field goal to go up 9-0.

  • Third quarter: On 3rd and 16, Campbell avoided the rush and threw to Anthony Mix for a 53-yard gain, down to the Tech 13. Auburn scored three plays later, taking a 16-0 lead.

You can see from the breakdown that it wasn't so much the long plays, as it was the third-down conversions. Auburn converted 3rd and 16, 3rd and 7, and 3rd and 16. Those are plays the Hokies gave up last year, but not this year, at least not until this game. Auburn was 6-for-15 on third downs, a 40% conversion rate. Stop them on the three third and longs listed above, and that rate drops to 20%, and the game is vastly, vastly different.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? Pretty darn good, as a matter of fact. Auburn had 299 yards of offense on 59 plays, 5.1 yards per play. Let's monkey with that stat by playing "throw it out":

  • Throw out those five gains above, and Auburn's yardage drops to 120 yards on 54 plays.

  • Throw out Auburn's three kneel-down plays on their last possession, which lost 15 yards, and the Hokies gave up 135 yards on 51 plays. That's 2.65 yards per play, a stat that doesn't win games.

But you can't throw those plays out. They happened. Auburn executed on offense better than the Hokies did and made some key plays, mostly on third down. VT did a great job inside the red zone, giving up just one TD in four Auburn trips inside the Hokie 10, but the problem is that VT went completely scoreless on two trips inside the 10.

VT did a good job against the vaunted Auburn rushing game, holding the Tigers to 110 yards on 43 carries. Only Alabama did better this year, holding Auburn to 74 yards on 41 carries in their rivalry game. Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown gained 129 yards on 33 carries (3.9 yards per carry) and had just one run that was longer than 11 yards (31 yards, on the second Auburn offensive play). Cambell gave the other 19 yards back on 10 rushes that included two sacks and four kneel-downs that lost 33 yards.

The biggest problem the Hokie defense had was applying consistent pressure to Campbell. VT had two sacks but generally didn't hassle Cambell, who in the first 35 minutes of the game completed 10-of-13 for 182 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. That has been the pattern of the Auburn offense all season: whenever the rushing game slowed down, Campbell picked up the slack, to the point where he was named SEC Offensive Player of the Year.

I thought Auburn did a better job blocking the Hokies' defensive line throughout the game than any other team VT faced this year, even USC. Bud Foster blitzed a couple times early in the game and had success with it, as twice Auburn failed to block Noland Burchette when the Hokies blitzed. Burchette forced a third-and-goal incompletion on one of the plays and sacked Campbell on third down on the other.

For the most part, to bring pressure the Hokies had to blitz. On Auburn's first possession of the third quarter, on the 3rd and 16 play that led to the 53-yard completion, Vince Hall blitzed untouched and had Campbell lined up. When Campbell sprinted right, Hall chased him and appeared to stumble slightly, falling to the turf and allowing Campbell to complete the long pass.

Hall blitzed again on third and goal on that same drive and was right in Campbell's face, but Campbell managed to get the ball by him for the touchdown. I can hear Maxwell Smart saying, "Missed it by THAT much!"

The defense had some lapses but played well enough, and they never quit, not even when it was 16-0 with 8 minutes to go. You could ask more of the defense – a shutout – but the fact is, the defense played well enough to win this game.

Running Game Struggles

22 carries for 76 yards. Bryan Randall: 9 carries for 45 yards. Cedric Humes, Mike Imoh, and Justin Hamilton: 13 carries for 31 yards. The longest run by a VT tailback was 8 yards, by Humes.

The Hokies' run/pass ratio was 22:38, almost 2 to 1 in favor of the pass, and in reality, the played calls were 2:1 or even more in favor of the pass. Randall was forced to scramble out of the pocket several times and was sacked once, leading to called passes that were recorded as rushing plays.

That run/pass ratio is obviously out of whack for the Hokies. It's the first time all season VT passed more than they ran in a game, and it wasn't even close, weighted heavily in favor of the pass.

Bryan Stinespring must have felt that the passing game was the better way to go to win this game, or perhaps more accurately, he wanted to lean on his senior quarterback in the biggest game of his career. I don’t think it was a case of Stinespring trying the run and giving up on it, I just think he was pass-oriented from the start, having watched Auburn's rush defense on film.

And you can't say the Hokies passed because they were behind. VT's deficit didn't reach the "abandon the game plan" point until late in the third quarter, and by then, the Hokies had already decided not to run the ball much.

The most glaring evidence of this were the four passes the Hokies tried on their seven plays inside the Auburn 10-yard line. When VT had 1st and goal at the Auburn 2-yard line in the second quarter, they tried Imoh up the middle, threw a pass, called a QB draw, and threw another pass.

When the Hokies had 1st and goal at the Auburn 10 in the fourth quarter, they tried a pass, another QB draw, and then another pass.

It's easy to second-guess the playcalling on the 1st and goal from the 2. For some reason, the Hokies haven't run the bigger, heavier Cedric Humes on the goal line this season, and they haven't run a QB sneak, to my recollection. Instead, they tried 5-7 Mike Imoh (no gain) and went with QB draws and the passing game.

I wonder what would have happened, had the Hokies brought in Humes and pounded him into the line four straight times.

Having said that, the simple truth remains: on the first possession inside the 10-yard line, Randall hit Jesse Allen in the hands in the end zone, and on the second possession inside the 10, Randall overthrew a wide open Harper and Morgan (take your pick). The play calls were good enough, but the players didn't execute. (Not to mention that Randall appeared to have a seam on his first QB draw, and Auburn made a great play to stop him on the 1.)

The Hokies "did their thing" late in the game, executing a nice 29-yard TD pass to Morgan and a what-was-Will-Herring-thinking 80-yard TD pass to Morgan on a pump fake that Herring inexplicably bit on, leaving Morgan wide open. Shades of GT, but the difference was that the Hokies hadn't made enough plays early in the game to set themselves up to where those two TDs would win it.

Quick Hitters

I don't have much more appetite for analyzing the loss, because in the bowl game, it's the last game of the year, and a loss doesn't portend anything for the rest of the season. So let's get straight to the quick hitters.

  • In addition to the two interceptions, Randall seemed to be "off" to me in this game. He threw behind receivers (most notably Jesse Allen, but others as well) and missed some wide open receivers. He finished 21-of-38 for 299 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, but he wasn't sharp, and those stats, as good as they are, could have been better. What a shame that he didn't finish his career on a high note, not just from an individual standpoint, but from a team standpoint.

  • Auburn's cute little deception play on the opening kickoff of the second half rubbed me the wrong way. Having five guys run together, shuffle their feet, pass the ball around, and then break and run seems "schoolyard" to me. I took it not as a trick play, but a sign of disrespect to VT. No real reason, it just hit me wrong.

  • There was quite a bit of discussion about Eric Green's conduct during the game, and unfortunately, I can't comment on it. I didn't notice Green yapping from my seat in the stands, and when I review game film, I watch the play, then take notes before the next snap. I don't watch the players between plays when watching the film, so I didn't see it. But many more fans than not thought Green was out of control.

  • Auburn did a good job taking away the deep middle routes by the tight ends. Randall completed one to Mazzetta for 20 yards, but the other passes to the tight ends, notably King, were out in the flat, near the sidelines, and for short gains. We're not used to seeing that from VT.

  • I thought Jimmy Williams had another great game. He led the Hokies with 10 tackles, including 3.5 tackles for loss, and his interception of Campbell was athletic and timely. Williams was also very physical, delivering several head-rocking blows to Auburn players.

  • The Hokies worked on Auburn cornerback and one-time VT recruiting commitment Montavis Pitts (#19 in your game program). Time and time again, VT went his way, with a lot of success. For a blast from the past, see the article we ran years ago when Pitts committed to VT. That issue of the now-defunct TSL Extra was titled, appropriately enough, "Pitts Commits! But Will it Stick? Or is he SEC-Bound?"

  • Small consolation: After Auburn scored to go up 16-0 on their first possession of the third quarter, they only had 20 more yards of offense.

End of a Special Season

The thing I like most is that this team never quit. They never let up. It would have been easy to quit when it was 16-0, it would have been easy to quit after Pace missed his field goal, and it would have been easy to quit after Randall's interception with 3:32 remaining. But these guys just kept coming after it.

As the days go by, I'm gradually coming to peace with the loss. Auburn was as good as advertised, with perhaps the exception of their running game, which didn't show much against VT. Campbell, on the other hand, made play after play without breaking a sweat. Their punter gets the ball off in a hurry and sure can plant a kick inside the five and have it die there. Their receivers caught everything that was thrown to them, and their offensive and defensive lines were very impressive. Their linebackers and defensive backs were fast and physical. Auburn was a mirror image of VT, except with more talent and more maturity in some positions, and they played like it. If you played that game 10 times, I think Auburn would win 7 or 8 of them.

When all was said and done, two things disappointed me:

1.) Bryan Randall, Jim Davis, and the other seniors didn't go out winners. These guys returned Virginia Tech football to its roots and gave the fan base hope for the future, hope that the Hokies can next year receive high early-season rankings and plaudits, yet still play hard and with heart.

2.) After the loss, the team exited the field through a tunnel that didn't lead them past Hokie fans. Had they come over to the Hokie crowd, they would have received a rousing ovation, dimmed only slightly by the loss. This was a special team that should have taken a bow at the end, but instead, they left with their heads hung low through an exit port surrounded by Auburn fans.

Much has been written about how fun this season was. "Fun." That's a word that left Blacksburg with Michael Vick after the 2000 season and hasn't returned until now. Football is supposed to be fun, and yes, the winning made this season fun, but more than that, it was the return of the VT mentality that put the fun back in Hokie football.

In the coming days and weeks, we'll take a look at VT's prospects for next season, run down the offense and the defense, and look at the season that was. Till then, raise a glass for the 2004 Hokies. They came, they saw, they rocked, they won the ACC, and they put Virginia Tech football back where it belongs. Now it's up to the underclassmen to keep it there.

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