Inside the Numbers: Rating the 1995 Recruiting Class
by Will Stewart, TechSideline.com, 7/22/04
Editor's Note: At last, after a 15-month hiatus, our "rating the recruiting classes" series returns! This is the sixth recruiting class we have rated, and here are links to the previous five articles: Rating the 1990 Recruiting Class, 7/24/02Rating the 1991 Recruiting Class, 8/29/02 Rating the 1992 Recruiting Class, 9/25/02 Rating the 1993 Recruiting Class, 12/31/02 Rating the 1994 Recruiting Class, 4/18/03 For the uninitiated, I created a purely numerical system for rating past recruiting classes, and I am applying it to VT football recruiting classes from 1990 to the present (it requires that a class go through its redshirt-senior year before it can be fully evaluated). The rating system is explained in this article, and there are links that go into more detail. At the end of this article, links are provided to an HTML file and an Excel file with the data I used.
Less than two weeks before signing day in 1995, Virginia Tech had just four verbal commitments and was staring a recruiting nightmare in the face. In the last couple of weeks, the Hokies received a flood of verbals and inked 16 players, 11 from the state of Virginia. That sounds like a low number, and it is, but VT only had about 15 to 17 scholarships to give In an unusual twist, player transfers, medical waivers, and dropouts opened up five additional scholarships for the Hokies, and they signed four more players in late March of 1995, a good seven weeks after signing day. Two of those players would go on to be VT stars and NFL players (more on that later). That boosted the total number of players in the class to 20. As noted above, despite the 11 signees from Virginia, only two of Doug Doughty's Top 25 players signed with VT, and a notable donut appeared on the offensive line recruiting chart. Doughty graciously gave the Hokies a grade of C+, but Tech recruiting fans feared that a subpar class would derail the program Frank Beamer was building. The reports from 1995 sound eerily similar to the early returns in 2005 recruiting. Namely, Virginia got the drop on VT, raking in 20 early (at the time) verbal commitments before Christmas, while the Hokies floundered until almost the very end. As usual, VT scheduled the large majority of their official visits in the month of January but got caught with their pants down when many players verbaled early to the Cavaliers and other programs in a trend that was sweeping college football recruiting. Many Hokie recruiting targets were spoken for before they ever took an official visit to Blacksburg. It was a surprise to the Hokie program, and Frank Beamer spoke openly at the time about getting an earlier start on recruiting by getting players into VT's summer football camp before their senior year, and getting them to take official visits during the football season, instead of waiting until January. Those things are par for the course these days, but in 1995, the Hokies were behind the curve in realizing that recruiting had become a ballgame of early commitments, and it hurt them. Another shock to Virginia Tech, and Virginia as well, was Boston College's successful raid of the state of Virginia. Never much of a player in recruiting in the Commonwealth, the Eagles signed seven players from the state, including six of Doughty's Top 25 and West Potomac defensive lineman Mike Willetts, the state's #1 prospect. BC also dealt the Hokies a severe blow by snagging Doughty's #8 and #13 players, offensive linemen Darnell Alford and Damien Woody. BC's theft of Alford and Woody from the state contributed greatly to the Hokies striking out with OL, a disaster that would impact the Hokie program and compromise their offensive line for years to come. While Alford and Woody went on to anchor some very good BC offensive lines in the late '90s, the Hokies patched together lines in 1997 and 1998 that were not up to VT standards and greatly compromised Tech's on-field performance. The Players Here are Tech's 1995 signees:
Note #1: The three players marked with an asterisk -- Prioleau, Carpenter, and Rice -- didn't sign until March 23rd of 1995. Note #2: That's 18 recruits listed. A 19th recruit, fullback Shelley Ellison, was already grouped with the 1994 recruiting class in a previous article, because he signed an LOI in 1994, later attended Hargrave, and entered VT in 1995. Technically, he counted against the 1995 class, but we grouped him with the 1994 class when we rated them. A 20th recruit, WR Ricky Hall, failed to qualify and went to junior college, then showed up at VT in 1997. We'll count him later with the 1997 recruiting class. The Offense: Offensively, this class wound up being the disaster it was billed as. Willie McGirt, Greg Melvin, and Chris Wright never even lettered for the Hokies, and Marcus Gildersleeve, a speedster, was too small to be an effective college wide receiver. Angelo Harrison turned out to be a great performer for Tech, not just as a solid receiver, but as a punt returner, where he led the Hokies for three seasons, and as a punt blocking specialist who once blocked two punts in a single game (Pittsburgh, 1996). Pedro Edison was a highly regarded TE out of Hargrave Military, but he was beset with off-field problems. He was charged with involuntary manslaughter -- knocked down to reckless driving -- in June 1996 after an accident that killed his friend. He pleaded guilty to the reckless driving and received four months in jail. Edison was also arrested in April 1997 for destruction of property and obstruction of justice, and he transferred to ETSU and finished his career there. Keith Short converted from his high school positions of DE/TE to the offensive line, where he played center for the Hokies, starting two years and being named All-Big East second team as a senior. Despite Short's success, the lack of OL in this class haunted the Hokie program for years. The Defense: The Hokies got strong careers from nearly every defensive player they signed in 1995. Chris Cyrus turned into a solid backup defensive end who contributed greatly to the Hokies' 1999 success, and Nathaniel Williams, who overcame a battle with alcoholism during his redshirt freshman year, was a three-year starter at defensive tackle, including the great 1999 defense. At linebacker, the Hokies really hit the jackpot. Junior College recruit Myron Newsome provided a much-needed stopgap measure and was an important part of the 1995 and 1996 defenses, and lightly-regarded Jamel Smith and Michael Hawkes were three-year and two-year starters respectively, who were standouts on the 1998 and 1999 Hokie defenses. This class was also a boon at defensive back. Tyron Edmond never seized a starting role, but he did letter four years for the Hokies. Loren Johnson, a highly regarded cornerback who had offers from Oklahoma, Indiana, and WVU, was thrust into the starting lineup as a true freshman due to injury, and he never left, lettering all four years and making All-Big East second team as a junior and first team as a senior. The Hokies hit the jackpot with late signees Pierson Prioleau and Keion Carpenter. Both turned out to be long-term starters and stars, and Prioleau was the only player from the class to be drafted. Shannon Rice, a WR/DB that we have listed as a DB here, didn't qualify and never showed up on campus. Placekicker Jimmy Kibble was only the second kicker to ever receive a scholarship from Frank Beamer at the time, and he didn't disappoint. Kibble converted to punter and led the Hokies in punting for four straight years (1996-1999), setting a Hokie record for punting average in a season (45.1 yards per punt in 1997). Kibble's career was so impressive and so decorated that he -- surprise! -- cracked our list of the top ten recruits from the 1990-1995 recruiting classes, landing at #6 and knocking Ken Oxendine out of the top ten. Impressions of the Class Overall This class made the most of its defensive recruits, at both linebacker and defensive back, and they got a couple of special teams stalwarts in punter Kibble and punt returner Harrison. But on offense -- ugh. And it showed in 1997 and 1998, when the Hokies struggled to move the football. Whenever the subject of the "weakness" of this class is broached -- because of the low regard in which it was held on signing day -- there are those who say, "Yes, but this is the same class that led the Hokies to the national championship game as redshirt seniors in 1999." No, it's not. Of the 18 players listed here, only six of them -- Williams, Cyrus, Smith, Hawkes, Short, and Kibble -- were members of the 1999 team, and of those six, none of them were the true leaders of that 1999 team. The 1999 headliners -- Michael Vick, Shyrone Stith, Andre Davis, Corey Moore, and Shayne Graham -- were from other recruiting classes, and John Engelberger was a walk-on, not a recruit. Jamel Smith and Michael Hawkes were key cogs of that 1999 team, and Kibble was a good punter, but the other three players were solid role players, not guys I would call "leaders" of the 1999 team. Offensively, this class was a big swing-and-a-miss. Defensively, they contributed some very solid players. But in a series of strong recruiting classes the Hokies put together in the 1990's, this one won't go down in history as a memorable class, mostly because of the total lack of offensive star power at the skill positions. This class is known more for its lack of offensive linemen than anything else. But when it comes to plugging the 18 recruits from the class of 1995 into our points-based ranking system, which we've previously used to rank the 1990-1994 recruiting classes, they nonetheless score very well, because of Kibble and the tremendous defensive depth they provided as a group. Let's take a look. The Recruit Ranking System Note: the recruit ranking system was introduced in the TSL Extra, our old monthly publication that is no longer produced, in issue #21 (July 24, 2002). To learn how it works and how points are awarded, see the Inside the Numbers article from that issue. In an effort to numerically rate the "success" of a recruiting class, both as individuals and as a team, I created a detailed point system that awards points for individual accomplishments and team accomplishments. I created a large table of "accomplishments" that players and recruiting classes could achieve, and then awarded points to players and classes that achieved those objectives. Individual players, for example, can earn varsity letters, set records, become All-Americans, and get drafted by the NFL. Recruiting classes can win games, go to bowls, and obtain Top 25 rankings. Here is a list of how many points are awarded for what accomplishments, both individual and team: Individual accomplishments: letter earned (1 point); season starter (2 points); VT season stat leader (2); VT game (5), season (7) or career (10) record held; All-American (10); First-team AA (15); Consensus AA (20), Unanimous AA (25); national award (20); Heisman finalist (30); All-Big East 2nd (3) or 1st (5) Team; BE Player of the Year (10); BE season stats leader (5); BE game (6), season (8), or career (11) record held; BE academic honor roll (2); drafted by the NFL (3-10 points). Class achievements: Wins (2 points per win); conference win (2); win over Virginia (5) or Miami (5); BE Champions (25); Top 25 (10) or Top 10 (15) finish; play in (15) or win (10) minor bowl; play in (25) or win (25) BCS bowl; play in championship game (50). Note that the reasons for this ranking system, and its strengths and shortcomings, were talked about in detail in TSL Extra issue #21. See the article explaining the ranking system at this link. Example From the 1990 Recruiting Class As we do for each of these articles, here's a walk-through with Tyronne Drakeford, a key member of the 1990 recruiting class. Here are his accomplishments:
Total points for Tyronne Drakeford: 49 Individual Points Scored by Members of the 1995 Recruiting Class Here's the entire 1995 recruiting class, and how many points each player scored in the TSL Pass system:
The Top Five and Their Accomplishments Jimmy Kibble (P, 55 points): Lettered four years; started four years; led VT in punting from 1996-1999; holds the VT season record for punting average at 45.1 yards per punt in 1997; led the Big East in punting in 1997; was first-team All-Big East for three seasons, 1997-1998. Kibble's 55 points places him #6 among the scores of players we have ranked so far from the 1990-1995 recruiting classes. Pierson Prioleau (DB, 37 points): Lettered four years; started three years; third-team Sporting News AA in 1997; All-Big East first team in 1997 and 1998; drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth round in 1999. Prioleau cracks the top ten, tied at the #10 spot. Jamel Smith (LB, 31 points): Lettered four years; started three years; led VT in tackles in 1998 and 1999; named All-Big East second team in 1999; named second team AP All-American in 1999. Loren Johnson (DB, 20 points): Lettered four years, started four years; All-Big East second team 1997; All-Big East first team 1998. Keion Carpenter (DB, 19 points): Lettered four years, started two years; led VT in interceptions in 1997 and 1998; All-Big East second team in 1998. Team Points Scored In terms of team accomplishments, the 1995 recruiting class wins points for what the team accomplished in the 1996-1999 seasons. These accomplishments are:
TOTAL 1995 RECRUITING CLASS RATING: 614 Points The 34.11 points-per-player average is the best by far among the six recruiting classes reviewed (1990-1995). Comparison With Previous Classes Rated So far, with six classes in the books, here's how they stack up against each other:
The 1990 class, featuring Maurice DeShazo, Jim Pyne, and Antonio Freeman, is still the big dog in terms of individual points -- points garnered by individual achievements, not team achievements -- but you can see the 1995 class is second-best, with an average of 12.7 "individual" points scored per player. The 1995 class also has a comparable number of team points when compared to the 1992-1994 classes. Here are some other benchmarks and how this class compares to earlier classes rated.
This was a relatively small class, but it tied the record so far for number of four-year lettermen (with 9) and did well in VT stats leaders (thanks to Kibble, Harrison, and Carpenter, who led multiple years in punting, punt returns, and interceptions, respectively). Top Ten Players So Far Six classes into our rankings now, here is our top ten list. From the 1995 class, Jimmy Kibble rocketed into the #6 slot, and Prioleau moved into a 10th-place tie with Ken Oxendine and Dwayne Thomas.
The 1990 class is still well-represented in the top ten, with four players. 1991 has two in the top ten, 1992 has two, 1993 has one, 1994 has one, and 1995 has two. See you next installment -- hopefully, much sooner than a year from now! -- when we rate a 1996 recruiting class that included record-setting Shayne Graham, who will blow most of the others off the charts with a string of VT records and Big East records. I fully expect Shayne Graham to be #1 on the list when all is said and done. We'll see, because the 116 points amassed by Cornell Brown is tough to beat (at least, until we get to Michael Vick and Lee Suggs). The Data To download the data in HTML (web page) format, go here: http://subscription.techsideline.com/tslpass/2004/1995RecruitingClass.htm To download an MS Excel spreadsheet containing all of the data and formulas that I have used here, go here: http://subscription.techsideline.com/tslpass/2004/1995RecruitingClass.xls Related Article
The
VT Recruiting Class of 1995 - 4/7/00
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When Virginia Tech's 1995 football
recruiting class was signed, it was deemed by any unbiased measure a disaster. The Hokies signed just 16 players,
including a mere two of the Roanoke Times Top 25 players. VT completely whiffed on offensive linemen, signing zero of
the big uglies. It was a class that was not highly regarded at the time, and looking back on it years later, it is a
fascinating case study and a contradiction in more ways than one, especially when you fit the players into our
handy-dandy formulas for ranking recruiting classes.