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We'll see you again a week from Monday! -- Will Stewart

I have been number crunching, and I've got some interesting information regarding the Big East and possible additions to the league, should Miami, BC, and Syracuse leave for the ACC.

To accompany this article, I have put together a table showing the Big East teams, possible additions to the league, and other random teams of interest. The table shows revenue and expenses for football, men's and women's basketball, and the overall athletic department. I have also included sports offered and football attendance, both reported and actual (as I estimate it).

There are some eye-popping numbers in the table. Click the link above to open the table in a separate browser window and flip back and forth.

Starting in 2004, to be classified Division 1A, a school will have to sponsor at least 16 sports (a minimum of 9 for women and 7 for men). Who listed in the accompanying table currently does not qualify? This qualification is not a big problem for any of the schools listed, but Vanderbilt, Tulane and Marshall are short just one sport. That new requirement in this grouping appears to be a moot point. We can ignore it, because it will have only a minimal affect on the Big East schools, ACC schools, or any school the Big East would probably expand with.

Since D1A football attendance requirements will be 15,000 in actual attendance, not just tickets sold, this does cause some complications. The attendance figures I have access to are cooked by most schools by listing ticket sales. I know how much several schools cook their numbers, and I know several (VT included) that do not cook their numbers. From what I do know Duke, Miami (Ohio) and Temple have a serious job in front of them to reach and maintain 15,000.

Additionally Cincinnati, Memphis, Central Florida, Tulane and Wake Forest do not look healthy. This is critical information, because it directly affects several programs listed as possible additions to the Big East (UCF, Memphis and Cincinnati), and one current member, Temple. On the bright side, if Temple can get its home attendance up, I think that they could have a lock on D1A membership for some time.

Several schools reported in trouble financially do not appear to be insolvent at all (Duke, Vanderbilt), but the incomes reported definitely include transfers from entitlement and grant accounts. Tulane was the one school whose real bottom line I knew. They were reporting $17.9 million break even, but their income was actually less than $12 million. For the purposes of this report I listed their real numbers.

It has been rumored that both Baylor and Tulane are indeed in serious financial trouble. These numbers indicate that their woes may even be greater than rumored, with Baylor losing almost $5 million and Tulane losing almost $6 million.

Lets take a look inside the Big East. Here Notre Dame's astronomical football income (over $43 million) jumps out right at you. Small wonder that they have no reason to want to take any chances to compromise that particular cash cow. Quickly, you note that three private schools, Syracuse, BC and Miami are bleeding red ink, BC ($8 million) and Miami ($5.8 million) in copious amounts. It then does not come as a surprise that BC and Miami seem so intent on trying something else in the hopes of balancing their books. Temple, with a break even figure, displays numbers that are obviously cooked, and probably has losses of its own.

So if UM, SU, and BC walk, where do we go from there? If you look at the alternatives, one and only one program is a near perfect fit. It has the athletic budget size and respectable attendance figures. That program is Louisville, with an overall budget of $32 million and attendance of close to 40,000.

Looking beyond Louisville, things decline very rapidly. ECU has the football attendance, but little else. ECU's football program is funded at about $5 million, or half the level of the existing BE schools, while its expenditures on basketball (less than $1 million) are a joke.

Toledo also has the attendance, but a full athletic program funded at about $10.7 million, about $4 million less than what VT spends on football alone. Memphis and Cincinnati are weaker in football than ECU, but have very good basketball programs. However we should note that across the board, we are looking at two Temple-level athletic departments.

Marshall's football attendance of about 25,000 is surprisingly less than anticipated, and their funding level ($3.8 million for football and $11.6 million overall) is pretty much a joke. It quickly becomes obvious that UCF, Houston and Southern Miss offer little more than long road trips, and that Miami (Ohio) isn't worth a mention. Ohio U doesn't look like an asset either. TCU has some assets, but the long travel distance seems to greatly outweigh their advantages. In football, the two military academies really do stand out though.

Assuming Temple can survive, the Big East would need to add six schools if they are to end up with a 12 team conference (not a lock at all, considering the favoritism the commissioner shows to a 9-team conference). Who would they be? If we concern ourselves with the overall athletic programs as embodied by budgets, then we end up with Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, Army, Navy and ECU.

If the expansion is to become football-centric, your six choices are Louisville, ECU, Army, Navy, Marshall and Toledo. If you want basketball-centric, then you pretty much have to Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, with a big drop down to the level of Marshall -- perhaps UAB, Navy and Marshall.

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