Virginia Tech is a Top ___ Team
by Walter Seaberg, 5/28/03

I often hear VT referred to as an elite team, a consistent Top 25 team, a consistent Top 15 team, etc.  I wanted to put some analysis together to determine what that blank should read.

Another fun stat that is repeated regularly (many times in the past couple months by Coach Beamer) is that VT has been ranked in 70- some consecutive weekly rankings.

Some Facts Behind the Rankings
(this is all based on the AP poll, no consideration to Coaches/USAToday/UPI/etc.)

Prior to mid-1993 (first year of what would become know as the BBE - Beamer Bowl Era), VT was last ranked by the AP in 1954, an absence of almost 40 years and 397 games (Note that VT was ranked #20 after the 1986 Peach Bowl win, but never took the field as a ranked team, since that happened after the bowl game, and did not carry into 1987 as a ranked team).

Yikes.  Interestingly, that gap (1954 to 1993) is roughly equivalent to the period of time between the time the ACC was formed and when the BE football conference began round robin play.  Hmmm.  Anyone still touting going the independent route should consider that.

Ignoring the weeks rankings come out when VT did not have a game, the 70 something streak decreases to 50.  That is, if you consider consecutive games played while ranked, VT is at 50 and counting (the 70 number includes bye weeks).

VT has been ranked in 95 of the 122 games played since the start of the 1993 season. If you leave out the first 8 unranked games of 1993, that figure goes to 95 of the last 114 games, which is 83% of the time.

The last game VT played as an unranked team was the 1998 Music City Bowl vs. Alabama, after having been ranked the previous 8 games, but falling out after a 2 losses in 3 games stretch (the heartbreaker at Cuse and the blown big lead vs. UVa in 1998, sandwiched around a 40 point beatdown of Rutgers).

Interestingly, in 1995 (arguably one of VT's best seasons), VT was only ranked in 4 of the 12 games that year (severe penalties and long memories imposed by AP voters for losing to "powerhouses" BC and Cincinnati).

Here are some random ranking facts:

• Longest gaps between being ranked during the BBE: 8 games (start of 1993 season); 8 games (after losing to BC in 1995 opener); 5 games (end of 1997 plus beginning of 1998 after loss at Pitt); 3 games (after 1996 lost at Cuse).

I think I read somewhere but have not tried to confirm that VT is the only team to lose 3 straight games and remain ranked (last year, dropping from 3rd to 8th to 13th to 22nd with consecutive losses to Pitt, Cuse, and WVU).

The Hokies' "Average Ranking"

Figuring out an average ranking is problematic for the weeks/games/ranking periods where VT was not ranked.  I have assigned a ranking of either (x+10) or 50 for games played while not ranked (where x is the ranking from the week before - assumes a loss generally drops you 10 spots in the rankings . . . if not ranked the week before, I used 50 as an average ranking - assumes upper half of the 116 1A schools).  Otherwise, just ignoring those weeks skews the ranking too high.

During this stretch of 114 games, the Hokies have been ranked in 23 of the 25 poll spots, not having been ranked #1 or #24.  The most common rankings?  #2, #3, and #8 (each 7 times).  The least common (besides #1/#24)?  #7 (once) and #10/#12/#15 (each 2 times).

Of the 114 games, the Hokies have been ranked:
Top  5:  20 times (17.5% of the time)
Top 10:  36 times (31.5% of the time)
Top 15:  53 times (46.5% of the time)
Top 20:  78 times (68.4% of the time)
Top 25:  95 times (83.3% of the time)
Not ranked:  19 times (16.7% of the time)

OK, enough disclaimers, here are the results (drumroll . . . ):

Average ranking since:
1993: 20
1994: 18
1995: 18
1996: 15
1997: 14
1998: 12
1999: 8
2000: 9
2001: 11
2002: 11

Conclusion:

VT is a Top 20 team since 1993
VT is a Top 15 team since 1996
VT is a Top 10 team since 1999