Well, it is the College Conference Realignment Season again, and this time the sky is falling ... or is it? Public statements coming out of both the Big East and the ACC all tend to indicate something is afoot. But why would Virginia Tech be so concerned?

We Hokies have had our conference problems for the last few decades. We dropped out of the Southern Conference in the early 1960's, and it took us 20 years to find a minimal home in the Metro Conference, and then we got shoved out the back door of that conference. It took us nearly 40 years and a boatload of money to eventually buy our way into a new home. Now suddenly our new home looks like it may be made of straw instead of bricks. Our major fear is being left out in the cold again. This fear is not entirely unfounded. So what indeed is happening?

• Offer an average of 76 1/2 football scholarships out of a possible 85 in a two-year period.

• Fund a minimum of 200 scholarships across the athletic department or spend at least $4 million on whatever number of scholarships are offered.

• Support at least 16 varsity sports, with a minimum of six for men and eight for women.

• Average 15,000 in attendance for home football games. That's an average of fans in the stands, not tickets sold.

• Play at least five home games against I-A foes.

There is a LOT of separate rulings that will be going on here. Several regional programs are almost assuredly not going to meet all of them, and they will be dropping into Division 1-AA. These schools include Kent, Temple, Arkansas State, Akron, and Buffalo.

Several other schools definitely did not meet the criteria when the rules were adopted last summer, and those schools have a lot of work to do to meet them. These schools include Wake Forest, Duke, Bowling Green and Miami (Ohio) among others.

To indicate just how much is now expected in terms of total athletic commitment, West Virginia just barely meets some criteria, as does Virginia Tech (we are both pretty minimal in total number of intercollegiate sports we support). To make a long story short, Division 1-A is going to lose 20 to 30 schools, and these losses will all come from the bottom of the division. This will create a situation where the big schools can democratically dominate the division's direction. Notice the word "democratically". That still does not involve all legal ramifications.

The BCS is now positioned for a major change. A lawsuit, or threat of one, drives this. The Mountain West and Conference USA have noticed that their members are never invited to a BCS bowl, and have lawyers lined up at the gate as we speak. To say that the Rose Bowl is unhappy would be putting it mildly. Their BCS affiliation has led to the lowest Rose Bowl attendance in modern history, and the Rose wants out.

Eastern conferences are also somewhat miffed. This includes the SEC, Big East, ACC and Big Ten. It seems like someone has noticed that only 20% of the BCS schools come from a geographic region that contains half the BCS bowls (the true reason Tech was shut out of the Fiesta Bowl several years ago).

Additionally, there is a proposal (outlined in the CBS Sportsline article linked just above) to have the four winners of the Fiesta, Orange, Sugar and Rose bowls be in the mix for a new national championship two or three weeks later. That game would rotate among the five BCS locations. (I proposed something similar to this two years ago and was contacted by the Big 12 and Missouri on the subject-the idea may have come from me!).

Other options are to abandon the BCS entirely and go to the old bowl format (which is not popular), have a true playoff (which is also not popular), or keeping the BCS as it is. The last alternative may have to be done without the Big Ten, PAC 10 and Rose Bowl.

This all being said, the BCS looks like it will make another transition towards a playoff, and will definitely become much more inclusive than the BCS we've all come to know and hate. If not at the end of this cycle, it will almost certainly at the end of the next. This is important, because the BCS participation will likely be more distributed throughout the new trimmer leaner Division 1-A.

In other words, if Tech is left out of the conference changes, they won't necessarily be left out of the BCS. So what is afoot with conference realignments?

Well there are several things we do know. Let's look at the Big 12, because they are the most important conference in the mix of things. In the mid 1990's, the Big Ten made a deal with the western schools in their conference, that once PSU was admitted, the 12th school would come from the west. (I am extremely confident in my source on that.) Iowa State and Missouri are the likely targets.

Early in the 1990's, Nebraska tried several times for Big Ten admission, but was rejected. At that time, the southern end of the Big 12 conference didn't look much more stable. About eight years ago, both Texas and Texas A&M were in open discussions with the SEC. I've said it before and I'll say it again, "Unless the Big 12 has found a way to keep its members at home, Virginia Tech has little to fear." Unfortunately, I am beginning to believe that they have indeed found a way to do just that, mainly because of the actions in the Big Ten.

The Big Ten did pick a western school, and that school was Notre Dame, but ND found a public and insulting way to reject the Big Ten's offer. My sources say that the feelings are still very hard over that rejection, and that any chance of the conference voting to admit ND again is between slim and none, and slim has bus tickets on the next bus out of town. My sources also say that the coveted school for admission was Iowa State, (I personally think they'd be better off with Missouri.).

Here is the current lean on the Big Ten. We know that they have talked to Syracuse and Pitt. We also know that the Big Ten is hot to trot to find that 12th school. Why would you possibly be talking with Pitt, or even Syracuse, if you had a chance of landing Missouri or Iowa State? The fact that they are indeed talking to Pitt leads me to believe that they do not feel that they have a chance to land ISU or Missouri. This would indicate that the B12 is much more stable than it was in the mid 1990's.

So while the Big Ten was talking to the northern end of the Big East, what was the ACC doing? Obviously, this is the one troubling thing definitely going on in the Big East. The Big East's own commissioner has stated publicly that the ACC has contacted Syracuse, BC, Miami, VT, and Pitt. The same information indicates that the ACC is looking for 3 schools. While the public hype is Miami/Syracuse/BC that is just that, public hype.

New information I discovered on April 2nd adds interesting light to the ACC move. There is some indication that the ACC move is not proactive, but that it is reactive. There are indeed sources that substantiate the claim that the SEC has been making overtures to both Miami and Virginia Tech. These same sources indicate that the ACC feels threatened by this move. Should Miami and VT enter the SEC that would mean that the SEC would have Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech from the ACC region. It would also mean that effective immediately, the ACC would become the second banana in their own territory, effectively becoming the Mountain West of the east coast.

Now why would the SEC be looking at VT/Miami instead of Texas/Texas A&M? That would possibly indicate the exact same thing that the Big Ten/Pitt talks indicate -- That the SEC is not talking to Texas and Texas A&M because they can't get them. Has the Big 12 solidified itself? I think we give a resounding "YES" on that topic.

If the Big 12 has locked itself up tighter than a drum, and if the Big Ten wants to expand, that leaves the Big Ten with a slim list indeed. They could swallow their pride and re-offer Notre Dame, or pick Syracuse, BC, West Virginia, Pitt or Louisville. I have to believe that, should this be the short list, their choices have to narrow down to Syracuse, Syracuse, Syracuse and Pitt. In addition, it should be noted that Syracuse has made no secret, that should the Big Ten come knocking, their relationship with the Big East is at an end.

If the Big 12 has locked itself up tighter than a drum, and if the SEC wants to expand, that also leaves them with slim options. Looking west you can only see TCU, Rice, Houston, and Tulsa. Looking east, and assuming that the ACC schools would hold pat, their only expansion options are Marshall, Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, East Carolina, Louisville and UCF. Should the ACC move first and lock down Virginia Tech and Miami, you would have one remaining franchise worth consideration, WVU. If the SEC is going to expand at all, then they have to move prior to the ACC making its move. If the SEC is trying to get VT and Miami, the ACC has little option but to remain a 9-team conference, or move into the fray now, because once VT and Miami enter the SEC, I doubt the ACC would have any chance of landing either program.

That leads me to one more topic. At first, why did we keep hearing out of Miami that they won't leave the Big East first? Why have they openly stated on two occasions, that if they go to the ACC Virginia Tech has to be part of the deal? And finally, why does Virginia Tech appear to be so calm? Have we found a school that loves us so much that they cannot beaer to part company with us? If you've answered "Yes" to the aforementioned question, then stop reading now, forget you ever saw this, and continue on with the rest of your na�ve life. There is virtually no chance that Miami is doing anything for Tech out of the kindness of their heart. That means they must be doing it for financial gain (how?) or to prevent financial loss.

In 1999 Virginia Tech was offered the much sought after full membership to the Big East. We politely took the podium, and in our best "Notre Dame" bluntly stated, "Virginia Tech is not interested in a Big East without Miami." At the time rumors abounded that Miami was in negotiations with the ACC. We said that we'd take the documents home, review them, and think about it. Then suddenly, about a week and a half later, all was wonderful, and we were suddenly happy and signed on the dotted line.

Tech Athletic Director Jim Weaver may be a lot of things, but "dumb as nails" is not one of them. Virginia Tech did not sign a 5 million-dollar contract with a 7-year break-even period because Miami patted us on the back, and said "No problem dude! We'll just stop talking to the ACC for a while." Tech got some guarantees and those guarantees had to have been in black and white, legal like. I am going to guess that the contracts read something like "If Miami should leave the BE in less than X years, and they cannot take VT along, they are going to owe VT one small boatload of money for damages." I'd also guess that there is another clause allowing them to partially default if another football member defects first. This is the only explanation I can dream up that makes Miami's public statements make any sense at all. Miami needs someone else to jump ship. There appears to be a whole lot more at stake than the 1 million-dollar exit fee.

Taking this one step further, the Big 12 seems awfully solid now. Too solid. I would guess that they have had a little commitment meeting out there, and that they have all signed on a very expensive dotted line. This is the same kind of dotted line Trangeese wants the BE schools to sign.

So where are we now? Well, the Big Ten wants someone badly and about the only fit available is Syracuse, (or possibly Pitt). If the Big 12 is locked down, I think they will offer, and, not being brain dead, the Orangemen (or Panthers) are headed into the Big Ten. The Big East then replaces them with Louisville. If Miami goes to the ACC or SEC, I think we go with them, otherwise I think we both hold pat. I really don't think VT has the legal option of leaving if Miami stays. So the dominos have to fall Syracuse, Miami, VT in that order, if we are included at all. Even then, the teams left behind will still have shots at the newly redesigned BCS.

Virginia Tech will eventually be in another BCS bowl, be it in CUSA, a new Big East, the current Big East, the ACC, or the SEC. Based off the new proposed methodology, it may actually be easier for BYU or VT to get into a BCS slot from a minor conference, than from a BCS conference. Granted you are going to have 30 schools playing for one BCS slot, but for a school of Tech's stature, I really don't see the Hokies having too awful much competition. If the Big Ten takes Syracuse, and the ACC takes BC, Miami, and Pitt, we are still in fat city, because if the SEC expands the only two good targets left would become Virginia Tech and West Virginia, and they seem to be willing to seriously consider that alternative.

What about the SEC? That is even better. The sportswriters keep saying it is a dream and only that. Let's look back to the early 1990's. The SEC specifically approached WVU and VT, and told them NOT to take the BE offer. They told us that as soon as they divisionalized, they would admit both of us. Nice offer, but I also took it with a grain of salt. Within three weeks, we were both in the Big East for football.

I agree in taking the bird in the hand. However, just two to three weeks later, the SEC broke into two divisions! Now ten years later, VT may be on the market again. My sources say the SEC talked first to VT/Miami. Public statements have all been positive from everyone in the SEC. And last but not least early this week the SEC stated that if the ACC took only Miami, "they would consider Virginia Tech and a team from Texas". While what we have here is no concrete offer, we do indeed have mutual interest.

Last but not least look at the sportswriters. How many times have we heard BC/Cuse/Miami to the ACC, yet at least 3 schools appear to want to vote against any expansion? The sportswriters know nothing. Most of them are simply put, repeating rumors. I have seen at least five reports in two days saying that the Big East will now have to keep Temple. What good would keeping a Division 1-AA football program be to the football schools in D1-A? The answer is absolutely nothing. No one is remotely considering the fact that if this were Sept 2005, neither Duke nor Wake Forest would be playing football in the ACC or Division 1-A.

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