It's time for TechSideline.com's third annual "Inside the Numbers: Ranking the Recruits," in which we mash together recruiting rankings from various recruiting services into one complex ranking system that gives each VT recruit a composite ranking. And since we're three years into it, we'll compare the last three classes to each other, too, for some interesting info.

This year, there's a change to the recruiting services that we'll use. In the past, we picked Rivals, SuperPrep, and PrepStar, but this year, we're dropping PrepStar and replacing them with rankings from TheInsiders.com. PrepStar has allied itself with Rivals (their recruiting magazines now say PrepStar and Rivals.com on the cover), and we didn't want to corrupt the rankings by duplicating them.

Other longstanding recruiting analysts (Max Emfinger, Tom Lemming, etc.) are excluded because they either don't have a ranking system that has the required depth, or their rankings are subjective and obviously biased towards some schools and/or against others. Or both, heh-heh.

This is our third year doing this. Previous articles ran in TSL Extra issue #4 (Feb. 16, 2001), and TSL Extra issue #16 (Feb. 15, 2002) -- see "related links" at the end of this article. In 2001, Kevin Jones, the top recruit in the nation according to Rivals.com and SuperPrep, nailed a near-perfect score of 44.8 out of 45. Last year, Marcus Vick took top honors with a score of 39.4.

Any installment of ITN:RTR is interesting in and of itself, but as the years go on, the ability to compare one recruiting class to classes from years past will make things even more interesting. And this year, the third year we've done this, will give us the chance to compare the 2001, 2002, and 2003 classes. We're also going to take a look at what positions VT has recruited the best -- according to the rankings, anyway -- and the worst in the last three years.

Let's get started, but first, the same disclaimer we ran last year.

If you're into this stuff, you may think that the formula and methodology that I use stinks. So let me warn you not to take this too seriously. I'm always under time constraints here at TSL, so when I came up with my ranking system, I probably put a grand total of 30 minutes of thought into it, tops. The remaining hours and hours were spent coming up with a spreadsheet full of formulas and entering everyone's rankings into it, and then wrapping this wordy article around it.

To do our rankings, we compile SuperPrep, Rivals.com, and TheInsiders.com ranking information for each recruit and throw it into some fairly complex formulas. The basic concept, though, is simple: a player can accumulate up to 15 points from each ranking service, for a total of up to 45 points.

Each ranking service is broken up into three parts, from which a recruit can earn 0 to 5 points. So, essentially, a player can earn from 0 to 5 points from nine different sets of numbers.

Here's the breakdown:

SuperPrep: 1 to 5 points for being in SP's Elite 50 ranking of the top 50 players in the country; 1 to 5 points for being ranked a SuperPrep All-American; 1 to 5 points for being ranked in SP's applicable state/regional ranking. If a player is not included in a given category, he receives 0 points for that category. 0 to 15 points total.

Rivals.com: 1 to 5 points for being in the Rivals 100 ranking of the top 100 players in the country; 1 to 5 points for Rivals.com position ranking; 1 to 5 points for Rivals.com star ranking. 1 to 15 points total (since everyone at least gets one star).

TheInsiders.com: 1 to 5 points for being in the Insiders Top 100 ranking of the top 100 players in the country; 1 to 5 points for TheInsiders.com position ranking; 1 to 5 points for TheInsiders.com star ranking. 1 to 15 points total (since everyone at least gets one star).

That's the quick-and-dirty summary. If you want the mind-numbing details, including mathematical formulas, then check out this link, which goes into each service's ranking systems in more detail, plus gives the philosophy and formulas of TSL's ranking system.

To summarize:

• A player can get up to 5 points from 9 different ranking sources (three services, three categories for each service, 0 to 5 points in each category).

• 45 is the highest possible composite rank. For a recruit to be ranked as a 45, he would have to be the top player in the SuperPrep Elite 50, be the #1 player in the Rivals 100, and be the #1 player in the Insiders 100.

• The lowest possible composite rank is 2 (every player in the Rivals.com and Insiders.com systems gets at least one star). For a recruit to receive a ranking of 2, he would have to be unranked in all services and earn just one star in his Rivals.com and TheInsiders.com rankings.

Now, here are Tech's 19 high school signees for the 2003 recruiting class, and their composite rankings. Please note that junior college (JUCO) and prep school players are not included, because the recruiting services do not necessarily apply their rankings to prep and JUCO players. For VT in 2003, prep and JUCO players are WR Josh Hyman (Fork Union), ATH Michael Hinton (Hargrave Military), S Corey Gordon (Hargrave Military), and S James Griffin (Pasadena CC).

Random example: Chris Ellis (23.7 out of 45). Chris did not make the Rivals or Insiders Top 100, nor the SuperPrep Elite 50, but he is a SuperPrep All-American. He was the 18th ranked defensive lineman out of 48 ranked by SuperPrep (3.58 points out of a possible 5). SuperPrep also ranked him 3rd out of 34 players in the state (4.76 points) -- 8.3 SuperPrep points. Rivals gave him 4 stars (4 points) and ranked him 8th out of 40 defensive ends (4.30 points) -- 8.3 Rivals points. The Insiders gave him 3 stars (3 points) and ranked him 31st out of 127 players at his position (4.06 points) -- 7.1 Insiders points. Chris' total is 8.3 + 8.3 + 7.1 = 23.7 points.

Top player: Vince Hall (26.5 points out of 45) edges out Tripp Carroll (25.4) and Xavier Adibi (25.4). Like Carroll and Adibi, Hall was a SuperPrep All-American and a four-star player according to Rivals. Whereas Hall and Carroll were also four-stars as ranked by the Insiders, Adibi was only a three-star, and that made him fall below Hall. Carroll wasn't as highly ranked in his state as Hall and Adibi were, and he also received a lower position ranking from the Insiders (relatively speaking), and that's why he finished about a point below Hall, as well, and tied with Adibi.

Hall ranks far below last year's winner, Marcus Vick (39.4 points out of 45), and 2001's superstar, Kevin Jones (44.8 points). The biggest difference between Hall, Vick, and Jones is that Vick and Jones both made Top 100 and/or Elite 50 lists, whereas Hall did not.

No player from this year's class was included in SuperPrep's Elite 50 or Rivals or the Insiders Top 100 -- in 2001 and 2002, a number of VT recruits were: Vick, Jones, DT Jonathan Lewis, QB Bryan Randall, WR Fred Lee, and OL Curtis Bradley had the distinction of being named to one or more of those lists. (Note that in past years, PrepStar's 120-member Dream Team was included, instead of TheInsiders.com's Top 100).

Bottom player: DJ Parker (4 points out of 45) was not ranked by SuperPrep, PrepStar, or Rivals.com, and was a Rivals and Insiders 2-star player. He tops last year's lowest-ranked player, Robert Parker (2 points), and 2001's lowest-ranked player, Brandon Frye (1 point out of 45).

For the second year in a row, VT did not recruit any one-star players. In 2001, both James Anderson and Brandon Frye were one-star players. This year marks the first time VT has not recruited a five-star player. In 2002, Vick was a five-star, and in 2001, Jones was a five-star.

Just for fun, let's throw the players from the 2001, 2002, and 2003 classes together and see what we get -- here's a composite ranking of the 57 players from all three classes (excludes Jordan Trott and Chris Caesar, because as late signees, they were never ranked using the TSL system):

The 2001 class, featuring Kevin Jones, Bryan Randall, and DeAngelo Hall, still stands as the top class of the three we have reviewed. This class was strong at the top, with 9 of the top 17 players in this list. The class was also "strong" at the bottom, with 4 of the bottom 8 players on the list.

The 2002 class had a couple of bona-fide super-recruits in Marcus Vick and Jonathan Lewis, but it tailed off after that. The 2002 class has only 3 of the top 18 players in the list. Even with the presence of Vick and Lewis, it scores lower, on average, than both of the other classes.

The 2003 class only put one player in the top 7 -- Vince Hall -- but they come on strong in the bottom half of the top 10, placing three more players from 8 to 10 -- Tripp Carroll, Xavier Adibi, and Chris Ellis -- to tie the 2001 class with four of the top 10 players in the last three years.

One interesting way to look at the classes is to divide them up into three equal groups of 19 -- since there are 57 players listed -- and see how many players each class places in each group.

The class of 2001 is oddly top-heavy and bottom-heavy, while the class of 2003 is evenly distributed. The class of 2002 is middle-to-bottom-heavy.

So how do the Hokies do at each position? Now that we've got three years of data to go on, we can present recruiting rankings for each position without the results getting heavily skewed because of a few random players.

That's a tough table to sort through, so take your time and look at it. It shows the following, at least according to recruiting rankings:

• Players like Kevin Jones, Cedric Humes, and Mike Imoh lead the running backs to a 23.8-rating average, tops among all positions.

• Right behind are the QB's (22.0), with headliners Marcus Vick (39.4) and Bryan Randall (36.1).

• The linebacker position, after being weak in 2001 and 2002, had a great year in 2003, leading all positions with a 20.8 rating in 2003, and moving up to third overall, at 16.6.

• Defensive line recruiting has featured quantity, not quality. DL is surprisingly weak, finishing 7th out of 9 positions (ATH can't really be counted as a 10th position). A whopping 15 players out of 57 (26.3%) have been classified as DL's when recruited.

• With the exception of Fred Lee (26.2 points), VT's wide receiver recruiting has been dismal, from a recruiting rankings standpoint. Only four wide receivers have been recruited in three years, with three of them being almost total unknowns (Robert Parker, Brenden Hill, and David Clowney). At VT, wide receiver continues to be the home of the sleeper/project recruit.

• Fullbacks? Almost non-existent. Joey Razzano is VT's only true fullback recruit in three years. No wonder the Hokies have started walk-on fullbacks for the last five years, and this year's backup, Cedric Humes, was a converted tailback. To say that the pressure on Razzano is huge is an understatement. It's either him, or more crossing fingers and hoping for good walk-ons.

The spreadsheet I used for analysis is available for download at the following location (Microsoft Excel 97 compatible):

http://subscription.techsideline.com/tslpass/2003/RecruitingRankings2003.xls

To load the spreadsheet in your browser, left-click the link. To save it to hard disk, right-click the link and select "Save Target As�"

Warning: it is nearly incomprehensible, so download it and read it at your own risk. Hopefully, it contains no significant errors.

There is also a more in-depth explanation of recruiting service rankings and the TSL composite ranking system here:

http://subscription.techsideline.com/tslpass/2003/article027.htm.

Inside the Numbers: Ranking the [2002[ Recruits -- TSL Extra #16, Feb. 15, 2002

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