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Lack of Top 50 Wins Could be a Problem Again
by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com, TSLMail #461, December 3, 2010

The ACC had never lost their yearly challenge with the Big Ten until last season. Now they've lost it two years in a row, and it's perfectly clear that the conference isn't as good this year as it has been in the past.

For the second year in a row, the Big Ten won the challenge 6-5. The Big Ten had five teams ranked in the Top 25 during the challenge, while the ACC had just one. The state of ACC basketball has gone downhill over the last couple of seasons.

That doesn't bode well for the Hokies, who have lost a few big opportunities to get Top 50 wins in their non-conference schedule. Tech will play one of the easiest ACC schedules this year, so their chances to pick up Top 50 wins once conference play begins might be few and far between. That game against Purdue was very important, and it could come back to bite them.

The Hokies vs. the ACC
Team Rank Meetings
Duke 1 1
UNC 3 1
NC State 4 1
FSU 5 1
Maryland 6 2
Clemson 7 1
Miami 8 1
Georgia Tech 9 2
Boston College 10 2
Virginia 11 2
Wake Forest 12 2

That's a look at the preseason ACC predictions, and how many times the Hokies face each team. As you can see, they face the worst teams twice and the best teams just once. That's good for their overall record, but it also reduces the number of opportunities to pick up Top 50 wins.

So far, many of those projections look right. Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are very bad ACC basketball teams, and Virginia is much too young. Boston College looks better than expected, with wins over Cal and Indiana. NC State is unlikely to finish #4, and Miami is probably better than #8.

Still, even if the Hokies sweep Georgia Tech, UVA and Wake Forest, that will be six ACC wins against teams that will probably finish the season outside the Top 100 of the RPI. And how many of those other 10 games will be against Top 50 teams? As of now, only Duke, Miami and NC State are in the Top 50, and Tech plays each of those schools just once. NC State is unlikely to remain in the Top 50 anyway. Boston College and UNC are hanging around the Top 50 as well, but will they stay there?

What about the rest of Tech's non-conference schedule? It's not promising right now.

Tech's Non-Conference 
Schedule
Opp. RPI
Penn State 56
Mississippi State 235
St. Bonaventure 68
USC Upstate 290
Mount St. Mary's 313
Longwood 281

History says that Penn State won't stay #56 for long, and though Mississippi State will move up from #235, they have played poorly so far this season and it's a major stretch to see them finishing in the Top 50. In fact, the Hokies probably aren't going to play another team in their non-conference schedule who will finish in the Top 50.

If that's the case, they'll have no Top 50 wins outside the ACC, unless Oklahoma State can move up and finish there. The Cowboys are #158 as of right now. With the ACC being down this year, and the Hokies playing the worst teams in the league twice each, opportunities to beat Top 50 teams aren't going to come often.

Last year Tech had three Top 50 wins, but it wasn't enough to get them into the NCAA tournament thanks to their non-conference strength of schedule. That strength of schedule will be better this year, but the Hokies may have already played their way out of the Big Dance by losing to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue. Only time will tell.

 

 

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