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TSLMail #369- February 20, 2009 |
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Tough Stretch Coming Up for the Hokies by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com According to Seth Greenberg, ACC basketball is all about who you play, when you play and where you play. If that's the case, then the Hokies have both a tremendous challenge and a tremendous opportunity ahead of them. Of all the contenders remaining for an NCAA tournament bid, Virginia Tech easily has the toughest schedule, if you average up the RPI.
Current Projection: NIT Duke (21-5, 7-4) Duke isn't playing good basketball right now. Their defense has dropped off quite a bit. In their narrow win over a below average St. John's team on Thursday night, the Blue Devils once again allowed their opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Duke was dominant defensively early in the year, but they have taken several steps back. They will make the NCAA tournament, but their losing streak is costing them seeding. They also might be Virginia Tech's best chance at a win from here on out. The Blue Devils have road games at Maryland, VT and UNC, and they host Wake and Florida State. With such a tough schedule coming up, and considering how poorly they've been playing recently, it's tough to see Duke going better than 10-6 in conference. Still, that will be enough to get them in. Florida State (20-6, 7-4) Current Projection: NCAA Florida State is one win away from finishing at .500 in the ACC. They do have a tough closing stretch, but they are good enough to notch a couple of more wins and lock up a bid for the NCAA tournament. After so many years of being a game or two away from making the Big Dance, this looks like the year that FSU takes that next step, despite being picked very low in the standings by most preseason publications. The 'Noles play Virginia Tech twice, and they also play Boston College, Clemson and Duke. Maryland (16-9, 5-6) Current Projection: NIT Maryland plays UNC and Duke in their next two games, and they must also face Wake Forest. A 3-2 stretch would give them a chance, but despite looking good in their recent win against Virginia Tech, the Terps probably aren't talented enough to pull off that kind of a run. Wake Forest (20-4, 7-4) Current Projection: NCAA Wake Forest still plays Clemson and Duke. Those are potential wins against Top 10 RPI teams. That could greatly help Wake's seeding in the NCAA tournament. They also have games against NC State, Virginia and Maryland. The Demon Deacons are talented enough, and the schedule is favorable enough, that they should have no trouble securing a invitation to the Big Dance. NC State (14-10, 4-7) Current Projection: NIT NC State is included simply because if they win their last five games, they have a great show to get to the NCAA tournament. However, that's going to be a tall task. They play three teams in the Top 51 of the RPI: Wake Forest, Boston College and Miami. Games against Maryland and Virginia certainly can't be locked in as wins either. The chance is very remote for the Wolfpack, but it is there. Clemson (21-4, 7-4) Current Projection: NCAA Clemson has games against Georgia Tech and Virginia, which they should win. They won't let the Hoos beat them twice. They also host Virginia Tech, and have a chance for Top 20 RPI wins against Wake Forest and Florida State. The Tigers could be the second best team in the ACC, and they have a good chance to pick up a #2 seed for the ACC tournament. UNC (24-2, 10-2) Current Projection: NCAA UNC has four games remaining, and just one game against a current Top 50 team. That's Duke, in Chapel Hill, in the last game of the regular season. Beside the Blue Devils, UNC gets Maryland, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels should coast to the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament. Boston College (19-8, 7-5) Current Projection: NCAA Boston College has key wins over UNC and Duke this season. They still have a chance to pick up quality wins against Miami and Florida State, and they also play NC State and Georgia Tech. Two more wins should put BC in the field of 65, and they should be able to reach that goal over their last four games. Miami (15-10, 4-8) Current Projection: NIT Miami needs to win their last four games to finish at .500 in the ACC. Luckily they have the easiest schedule remaining, with games against Boston College, Virginia, Georgia Tech and NC State. They are also due to have some good luck. The 'Canes have lost a number of close games this year, including three ACC overtime games.
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