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Hokie Opponents Shooting Well From Everywhere (Even the FT Line) 
by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com

If you’ve been thinking that opposing teams have been shooting the ball better against the Hokies recently, you’re right. Tech’s defense has noticeably gone downhill recently, with nearly every team they play shooting better against VT than they average in other ACC games. The Tech defense has given up a high percentage of shots lately, and the result is the Hokies’ less than stellar win-loss record.

In the past five games, only one team has shot a worse percentage against the Hokies than they average in ACC play. That was NC State, who made up for it by shooting better than usual from three-point range and the free throw line. Over Tech’s last 11 games, the Hokies have held just two teams to below their ACC shooting percentage.

The maroon shaded cells indicate an instance where the Hokies held the opposition to a lower percentage than their average against ACC teams. The orange shaded cells represent a game where an opponent shoots better than usual against the Hokies. So as you can see, Tech is having some major problems on the defensive side of the ball.

On the other hand, let’s take a look at free throws. The Hokies have no control at all over how the opposition does from the line, and unfortunately for Tech, opponents are nailing their charity shots at a high rate. Ten of the 13 teams the Hokies have played shot a higher percentage against VT than against the other ACC schools, including the last six teams on the schedule. The last four teams have shot at least 82.6% from the free throw line against Tech.

The most unbelievable performance from the free throw line came from the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is the worst free throw shooting team in the ACC (yes, even worse than the Hokies). Yet against Tech, the Tigers knocked down 13-of-15 shots from the charity stripe, good for 86.7%.

Throughout their first two years in the ACC, Virginia Tech has used turnover margin to offset poor field goal percentage defense, and it has worked for the most part. Tech has won ACC games, or been involved in very close games, where they were outshot and outrebounded, because they force a lot of turnovers. It’s good that the Hokies have something to hang their hat on, but their team defense needs to improve in time for next season. The turnovers might not always be there. They weren’t against Miami on Wednesday night, and VT suffered their second-worse ACC loss of the season as a result.

But this season isn’t over, and unlike the days of playing in the Big East, the Hokies know in February that they will definitely be playing in the conference tournament. Who they will play in the first round is still up in the air, but we can take some reasonable guesses.

If the season ended today, Virginia Tech would play Miami in the first round of the ACC tournament. The top four seeds in the ACC get a first round bye, and those teams would be Duke, UNC, NC State and Boston College if the season ended today. The bottom eight teams in the league play each other in the first round, with the #5 playing the #12, #6 vs. #11, #7 vs. #10 and #8 vs. #9.

So if the Hokies want to make it to the ACC Championship Game, they would have to get past Miami, NC State and probably North Carolina. That’s no easy task, but then again, what bracket in the ACC is easy? As Seth Greenberg likes to say, there are no easy outs, no rocking chair games, in this conference.

Just take the Maryland-Clemson series for example. Maryland is regarded as one of the ACC’s most prestigious programs. They have won a National Championship and an ACC Tournament under Gary Williams. Clemson has floundered near the bottom of the ACC for years, and even under Oliver Purnell have shown no signs of moving up. But Clemson has beaten Maryland four times in a row, including three times last season (regular season and ACC Tournament) and an 89-77 drubbing this season. Go figure. And guess who Maryland would draw in the first round this year, if the season ended today? You guessed it. Their Achilles Heel, Clemson.

The good news for the Hokies is that in the ACC Tournament, just like in the regular season, they are more than capable of beating any team they draw. You can’t name one team in the tournament that Tech absolutely can’t beat. But of course just about every other team can make the same claim. With that type of parity from top to bottom, the 2006 ACC Tournament should be a great experience, as it usually is.