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When the Virginia Tech Hokies were in the middle of their 4-game ACC basketball winning streak, many basketball fans were asking how in the world this group of no names was managing to beat teams such as NC State and Georgia Tech. Hokie fans pointed to a stat that was Tech's downfall under Ricky Stokes, and their savior under Seth Greenberg: turnover margin. After starting 0-2 in ACC play with losses to UNC and Florida State, the Hokies won four consecutive ACC games to move to 4-2 in conference play. After dropping a game to Duke, Tech went on the road to beat Miami, putting them at 5-3 in the ACC. The Hokies were on a roll, winning 4 out of 5 games, and it was simple to see how they did it. They protected the basketball and forced turnovers.
The table shows that Virginia Tech averaged a +3.33 in turnover margin for the games that they won in the first half of ACC play. To the average fan, that may not sound like much, but in hard fought, close games that the Hokies barely hung on to win, they make all the difference. With three empty possessions per game, VT opponents missed three chances to score. Let's say that under normal circumstances, without a turnover, they would have scored on two of those possessions. That's four points they did not score because of turnovers . Now let's go out on a limb and say that Tech converts two of those turnovers into layups for a total of four points. Add that up, and that's eight points in Tech's favor, and with one-point victories over NC State and Georgia Tech, a two-point victory over Clemson, and a six-point win over UVA -- well, you see what I'm getting at. Overall points off turnovers were also huge in Tech's first five ACC victories. The Hokies are +27 points off turnovers in their five ACC wins this year.
Clearly points off turnovers played a critical role in three VT victories this year -- the two-point win over Clemson, the one-point win over NC State, and the six-point win over UVA. If Tech isn't forcing a lot of turnovers and turning them into points, chances are they aren't winning basketball games. The tables above show the winning statistics for VT basketball -- now let's take a look at some statistics that aren't as good. First off, turnover margin in ACC games that the Hokies have lost.
While these numbers aren't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, they are not up to par with the numbers above. The odd statistic is the +9 turnover margin in the loss to Florida State. FSU has been an inconsistent team this year, with a win over Wake Forest but losses to nearly everyone else. It's pretty shocking, considering the Hokies forced 28 turnovers, that the 'Noles were able to beat Tech that night. The Hokies led late, but couldn't finish strong. Tech turned the ball over 19 times themselves, their second highest total of the year, so that had a lot to do with it. And while Tech whipped Wake in turnover margin, the Demon Deacons had too much talent for the Hokies to overcome. Turnover margin in the Maryland and UVA losses did not help the Hokies. Out of all the VT losses this year, turnover margin meant more in these two games than in any other. The Hokies were -5 against Maryland, which is a huge difference from the +5 margins that they were seeing in their winning streak. And while the -1 turnover margin against UVA is very small, it is quite significant when you consider that Tech was +11 against the 'Hoos when the teams first met in Blacksburg. The most obvious sign that the Hokies are losing games is to look at the points off turnovers battle. Except for the FSU game, Tech has gotten killed in this statistic this season.
Obviously, this Virginia Tech team has too many deficiencies for the Hokies to overcome when they fall behind in the turnover department. The only conference game that the Hokies won this season in which they lost the points off turnovers battle was against Miami, and they were outscored in that category by a mere one point. The two things that have really hurt Tech's turnover statistics in the past two games is the opponents that they have been playing, rather than their own play. Maryland is led by a great point guard in John Gilchrist who takes care of the ball, and Pete Gillen slowed UVA's offense down to a crawl in an attempt to take better care of the ball, which obviously has worked. So have the Hokies lost their mojo, or are teams learning to take better care of the ball against Tech? All that said, the Duke game last night represented the opposite of
everything already written in this article. The Hokies lost the turnover
margin battle by 6, and were outscored in points off turnovers 14-12. However,
they more than made up for it in rebounding, winning that battle 49-32. They
also beat Duke in 2nd chance points 14-2. The amazing thing is that
Tech is dead last in the ACC in rebounding. The Hokies can still win games by
dropping the turnover battle, they've just got to find another statistic in
which to excel.
Brain Injury Services of SWVA and Brain Injury Services, Inc. in Northern Virginia are offering Hokie fans a chance to win a truly unique prize: a "game-winning" football signed by the Virginia Tech football coaching staff and players. The football up for grabs is the football being carried by Cedric Humes in the picture above, during Cedric's game-clinching 37-yard TD run against Virginia this past season. The ball was taken from the field -- "It still has dirt on it," yours truly was recently told -- and later signed by Virginia Tech coaches and players. The ball is now being raffled off. Only 600 raffle tickets are being sold, and each ticket costs $100. To make things even better, the cost of your raffle ticket is tax-deductible as a charitable donation to Brain Injury Services of SWVA and Brain Injury Services, Inc. These two organizations are the only two case management programs serving kids with brain injuries in the state of Virginia. The services needed by brain injury survivors are scarce, and these two programs make a difference in people's lives. Proceeds from the raffle will be used to fund desperately-needed case managers at these two organizations. Interested? Here are the details:
The Virginia Tech football
program and head coach Frank
Beamer (click the link to see a letter written by Beamer) are behind this effort to raise much-needed funds. Buy your ticket
and get your chance at winning the football pictured above! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Updates From the Past Week
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Quieting the Weary Ghosts of Cassell
Hokies
Rock the ACC, Knock Off Duke 67-65
Game
Preview: Virginia Tech vs. #7 Duke
Advance
Auto Parts Hokie Hotline Notes for 2/14/05
Cavaliers
Come on Strong, Down Hokies 65-60
Game
Preview: Virginia Tech at Virginia