November: A Cold Cruel Month
by Marty Cassady, 11/14/02

Whenever my brother and I talk or email, the conversation inevitably revolves around golf, food and Virginia Tech football (these are a few of our favorite things.) Earlier this week, as we sought answers to questions like What happened to VT’s run defense? Why am I not making any putts? and Did you know Fuddrucker’s has a one pound hamburger now? one of us (the smart one) remarked that he’d like to see the Hokies’ recent November record, broken down by season and by personnel -- specifically, how the Michael Vick-led teams did compared to the rest of the "Beamerball era" (which is how we refer to the 1993-present run of 9 (to be 10) consecutive bowl appearances.

I had the day off, and this sounded like a challenge. My source for numbers here is, of course, TSL’s football page and searchable scores database.

Since VT's bowl run began (the 1993 season through the weekend of 11-9-2002):

Virginia Tech Late-Season Football Record, From 1993 Through 11/9/02

Time Period

Record

Winning
Percentage

Overall record, including bowl games

91-27

.771

Regular-season games, on or after Nov. 1

22-11

.667

All games, on or after Nov. 1

26-16

.619

Regular-season games on or after Nov. 1, with Vick as starter

5-0

1.000

Regular-season games on or after Nov. 1, minus games Vick started

17-11

.607

All games prior to Nov. 1

65-11

.855

Stated in non-table format:

  • VT's overall record, including bowl games, is 91-27 (.771 winning percentage.)
  • VT's record in regular-season games on or after November 1st is 22-11 (.667 winning percentage.) Add bowl games (Tech is 4-5 in its 9 consecutive bowl appearances) and you get a post-November 1st record of 26-16 (.619 winning percentage.)
  • VT is 5-0 in post-November 1st regular-season games in which Michael Vick was the starting quarterback (all 1999’s November games and the 2000 Virginia game.) If you subtract those, Tech's post-November 1st regular-season non-Vick record is 17-11 (.607.)
  • VT's pre-November record over this period is 65-11 (.855 winning percentage.)

Breaking it down by year, pre- and post-November 1st:

Records Before and After Nov. 1st
(through 11-9-2002)

Season

Before Nov. 1

After Nov. 1

1993

6-2

2-1

1994

7-2

1-1

1995

6-2

3-0

1996

5-1

5-0

1997

5-2

2-2

1998

7-1

1-2

1999

7-0

4-0

2000

8-0

2-1

2001

6-1

2-2

2002

8-0

0-2

Totals

65-11

22-11

For the sake of even more argument, let's compare the post-November 1st regular-season records of the VT teams that had "great" seasons (1993, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000) with the teams that had "good" seasons (1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002.) I think most of us would agree that there aren't any "bad" seasons in the mix, and 2002 could still turn out to be "great." And I’m putting 1993 under "great," since I also think most of us would agree that turning 2-8-1 into 9-3 with a bowl win is pretty "great."

  • "Great" season record after November 1st, excluding bowls: 16-2 (.889.)
  • "Good" season record after November 1st, excluding bowls: 4-9 (.308.)

Sobering statistic: From 1993-1996, VT was 11-2 (.846) after Nov. 1st, excluding bowls. Since 1997, VT is 11-9 (.550) after Nov. 1st during the regular season. Without Vick's 5 post-Nov. 1st wins as a starter, that drops to 6-9 (.400.)

Conclusions

Here are some conclusions you can draw from those statistics:

1.) The month of November makes or breaks VT’s (and a lot of other teams’) season. It’s where "great" teams are separated from "good" ones. The three VT teams generally acknowledged as having had the best seasons, and that went to BCS bowls (1995, 1996 and 1999) went 3-0, 5-0** and 4-0 in November.***

2.) Since 1997, VT has generally not played well in November, with the exception of the two seasons in which Michael Vick started at quarterback.

Land of Asterisks

** Yes, that’s 5-0 in November 1996. That’s how you finish a season, folks. The ‘96 Hokies started 3-0, lost at Syracuse, then won their last 7 games to finish 10-1, with the last 6 wins coming in 6 consecutive weeks (no open dates) over Pitt, SW Louisiana, ECU, Miami**, West Virginia and Virginia, and the smallest margin of victory was 21-7 over the Hurricanes on the road. I’m not sure any other Tech team has played so well for such an extended period.

*** Each of the three undefeated-in-November VT squads won a huge, close game that month as well: the 11-0 1999 team started November by trailing in Morgantown with a minute to go, no time outs, and 85 yards of putt-putt rug in front of them, only to be rescued by The Scramble™ and The Kick 2™. The aforementioned 21-7 win at the Orange Bowl in ‘96 was a 14-7 nailbiter in the waning minutes with Miami in the red zone, before Keion Carpenter returned The Interception™ to ice the win. And, of course, we all remember the ‘95 Hokies, dead to rights in Charlottesville before The Fourth-Down Conversion™ and The Pump Fake™. Big plays in big games by big-time players. Fun to watch, weren’t they?


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