Wednesday, November 25, 1998

Beamer to Clemson or South Carolina?  Possible, but not Likely

Everybody's buzzing about Coach Beamer being mentioned as a head coaching candidate for the Clemson and South Carolina jobs.  Frank is making Hokie fans nervous by not turning down the interview requests outright, but my own personal opinion is that you can rest easy, Hokies.

If Frank Beamer goes to either place, folks, it'll be a huge surprise.  I'll readily admit that you should never say never, but in this case, I think you can at least whisper it under your breath.

First of all, it's not about money.  The Clemson job is worth something like $800,000 per year, and by contrast, Beamer's current financial package with Tech is worth $450,000 per year.  Plus, if he stays until 2005, he'll be handed a $1 million annuity, which he stands to forfeit if he leaves earlier.

But Frank has shown time and time again that money is not what motivates him.  He had a chance to leave for more money at Boston College back in the early 90's, and he decided not to go.  He has donated $50,000 to Tech on at least two different occasions, and men who are hoarding their money don't do that.

He once turned down a raise because there was a state salary freeze in effect, and he didn't want to accept a raise until other employees at Virginia Tech could get one, as well.

Do you get my point?

And what a sweet position Beamer is in here at Tech.  He can do no wrong.   In 1996, when the Tech football team couldn't go two weeks without getting their names in the paper for all the wrong reasons, the furor that erupted bypassed Frank, and the man was hardly questioned.  Any coach that can survive 20+ arrests unscathed is a man who ought to think twice about leaving a fan base that loves him that much.

We could go on and on with comments like that, but that would all mask the real question here:  why doesn't Frank just turn down the interview requests outright?   Why is he saying, "I don't want to even think about Clemson until after the Virginia game, and I'll address it then"?

How about this answer:  I don't know why.

I do have a couple of comments that might help, though:

  • Clemson University president Dino Curris hired Beamer as head coach at Murray (Ky.) State in 1981.  That was Beamer's first head coaching job, so he owes the man a lot.   He owes him his career.  So you don't slap a friend like that in the face by refusing to even talk to him.  You do him the honor of considering his request for an interview carefully, and then maybe you even go on the interview.
  • We know very little about the relationship between Beamer and Tech Athletic Director Jim Weaver.  Frank went around the negotiating table with former AD Dave Braine many times, but this is his first go-round with Weaver, so maybe Beamer's coyness about the Clemson job is part of the task of establishing his relationship with Jim Weaver.
  • Frank has been known to renegotiate his contract in an effort to get better pay and perks for his assistant coaches, so that could be playing a part in this, as well.   Dave Braine knew from experiencing the 1992 season that a good, stable staff of assistant coaches is critical, particularly here at Tech, and perhaps Frank's tactics, if you can call them "tactics," are an opportunity to establish with Jim Weaver how he, Frank, feels about his assistants.  Maybe Frank is trying to get something for them on this go-round.

None of which is to disparage Jim Weaver.  He's a football guy, first and foremost.  He understands the value of assistant coaches, and he's a smart man in other ways, too.  For example, he also no doubt understands the value of longevity at the head-coaching position, so he wouldn't let Frank go without a fight.

In the end, it's all speculation, but I think Frank will stay put.  I'm not sure what he's up to, but I think we'll be satisfied with the end results.  If Beamer leaves, you'll be able to scrape me up off the floor with a spatula, because I'll be so shocked that I'll collapse into a puddle on the floor.

Many of the message board posters are talking about starting up a "Beam-ER, Beam-ER, Beam-ER!" chant at the end of this Saturday's UVa game, win or lose, and I think it's a good idea.  Whether he's serious about leaving or not, let the man know that you want him to stay.  When the chant starts up around you, join in, and yell it loud.


Speaking of Those Wahoos...

Tech has been installed as 2-1/2 point favorites over UVa this weekend, at least, that was true the last I heard.  I don't really follow that stuff very closely.

Here's the bird's eye view of the matchup:  it's the Hokies #6-ranked defense against Virginia's #23 offense, and it's Virginia's #29 defense against Tech's #90 offense (hmm, we moved up a little).

But the numbers don't tell the whole story, of course.  The numbers don't tell you that Virginia's straight-ahead rushing style is tailor-made to go against the Tech run defense, which can give up yards if you run straight at it.

The numbers also don't tell you that buried in UVa's #23 offensive ranking is a ranking of #67 in passing offense.  So the Cavaliers' task on offense is clear:  run the ball, or die.

Not that UVa can't be successful against us with the passing game.  The Hoos have a well-rounded pass offense that includes the tight end and the back out of the backfield, as we found out last year in Charlottesville.  But what's missing this year is the dominant receiver, a la Herman Moore or Germane Crowell, who can abuse our man-on-man coverage.  And yes, I don't care if I spelled Crowell's name right or not.

UVa has also had an extra week to prepare a good offensive game plan, but I still think they need to run the ball well to be successful.  If they wind up in a lot of third-and-longs, I think they're in big trouble.  And if Aaron Brooks gets rattled and starts throwing interceptions, they're in really big trouble.

Over on our side of the ball, the outlook is not good.  UVa's defense, although not as good as the preseason hype foretold, is much better than the defenses of WVU and Syracuse, both of which gave us fits.

The Rickey Bustle watch will still be on, big-time.  More so than with any other opponent this year, our offense is going to have to mix it up to be successful.  Our o-line, which has struggled as of late, could have big time trouble against UVa's defensive line, and I fear that they will totally shut us down, like Syracuse did, if we let them.

In the past, in good years, Rickey has shown the ability to work UVa's defense better than any defense I can think of.  In particular, Rickey is good at taking advantage of their aggressiveness with misdirection plays like our double-screen, the end-around, or the pump-fake.  I really think that attempting a north-south game with our offense against their defense would be setting us up for failure, so it'll be interesting to see what Rickey comes up with.

Our special teams are the wild card in all this.  If our offense bogs down, I don't think it's a stretch to say that we'll need a score from our special teams, or our defense.  Bob Lipper of The Richmond Times-Dispatch wrote an excellent article about the heat our punt-block team will bring on Virginia punter Donnie Scott (see "Tech will give UVa's Scott no time to kill," linked below), and we can only hope that the punt-blockers, who were dormant against Rutgers last weekend, awaken again.


The Prediction

Sometimes, it's easy to say who's going to win this game.  I have known with certainty who was going to win every Tech-UVa game in the 90's, with the exception of 1995, which was a real tossup and turned out to be the best UVa-Tech game of the decade.   Here we are in 1998, and once again, I don't know what's going to happen.

I can see how it could go either way.  We could shut down their offense, get a defensive or special teams score, pop an offensive touchdown here and there, and win easily.

Or, they could totally stifle our offense, make no mistakes against our special teams, and beat us with a good, solid offensive game plan.

It's times like these where the noise level of the Lane Stadium crowd is critical, but please make noise only while we're on defense, folks.  Al Clark has tonsillitis, so be quiet as a mouse when we're on offense, at least while Al is at the line of scrimmage.

Naturally, I'm going to predict a Hokie win.  I think this game will be similar to the 1993 game, in that it will be relatively low-scoring and tight.  That one ended up 20-17 in favor of Tech, but for this one, I'll predict a slightly different score:

Tech 23, Virginia 16.

Frankly, I hope I'm wrong.  I hope we blow them out.

          

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