TechSideline.com: 2006 Football Game Preview

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All that stands between Virginia Tech and their third consecutive 10-win season is in-state rival Virginia. All that stands between Virginia and a bowl bid is Virginia Tech. Both teams have a lot to play for this Saturday, not to mention pride. The Hokies will get the Cavaliers' best shot, but with UVA's history of poor play on the road, will their best be enough?

Since Al Groh took over at Virginia, the Cavaliers haven't played very well on the road. That has never been more true than this year. They knocked off Duke 37-0 back in September, but they have lost their other four road games on the season, and none of them have been particularly close.

UVA's four losses on the road have come by an average of three touchdowns. That's a stat that can't be ignored, even in rivalry games when we can “throw the records out the window.” Keep those numbers filed away in your brain. It could be the most important factor of the game.

Other than that, UVA has improved steadily over the season. After starting 1-4, with a home loss to Western Michigan and a scare from Wyoming, the Hoos have improved, winning three of their last four games. Of course, the wins have been in Charlottesville, and the one loss was a 33-0 rout on the road in Tallahassee.

The UVA offense has struggled for most of the season. They haven't put up many yards or many points. Their struggles aren't surprising, considering they are starting a r-freshman at quarterback, a converted fullback at tailback, and have a new offensive coordinator with no experience calling plays.

Those stats aren't a good sign when you're about to face one of the top defenses in the country on the road.

After trying Christian Olsen and Kevin McCabe early in the season, the Cavaliers finally settled on Jameel Sewell, who has done a nice job. Sewell is a threat to run, but he would prefer to stand in the pocket and beat you with his arm. He has completed 58.8% of his passes this year for 1,276 yards. He has thrown five touchdowns with five interceptions.

Sewell's favorite target is sophomore Kevin Ogletree. Ogletree (6-2, 189) has been more of a possession receiver this season, although he has been involved in more big plays as the season has developed. He has 50 catches for 551 yards and four touchdowns on the year. He always seems to find a way to get open, and Sewell obviously trusts him.

The Cavaliers will also use their tight ends in the passing game. Starter Tom Santi is second on the team in receptions with 29. He has 253 yards receiving and one touchdown. The other tight end, Jonathan Stupar, has a lot of experience. He has 13 catches for 107 yards.

Other targets for Sewell are running back Jason Snelling and wideout Fontel Mines. Snelling is used frequently in the passing game. He has 26 catches for 271 yards. Mines has pulled in 25 receptions for 237 yards and two touchdowns.

The running game hasn't been very good for UVA this year. Snelling is a tough runner who has 751 yards on 170 carries, an average of 4.4 yards per carry. But he doesn't quite have the speed to get through the small holes that the offensive line provides. Depth is also an issue at tailback for the Cavaliers.

The second leading rushing is quarterback Sewell, who has 180 yards on the year. Cedric Peerman has 46 carries for 153 yards, an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Former five-star recruit Michael Johnson has seven carries for six yards.

UVA has a young and inexperienced offensive line, and that has been a major part of their offensive trouble. They start two sophomores at left tackle and left guard, juniors and center and right guard, and a freshman at right tackle.

The left side of the line is big, with tackle Zak Stair checking in at 6-6, 298, and guard Brandon Albert listed at 6-7, 315. Look for the Hokies to try and get penetration over the center and right guard. Center Jordy Lipsey is just 6-3, 280, while right guard Ian-Yates Cunningham is 6-3, 290. They will have a hard time moving Tech's defensive tackles.

The right guard is Will Barker, 6-7, 306. Barker obviously has a good future if he is starting as a freshman, but the Tech coaching staff has to feel good about experienced defensive ends like Noland Burchette and Chris Ellis lining up across from Barker.

We've mentioned UVA's road woes this season. Let's take a look at what their offense has managed in their four losses on the road.

UVA has only managed to rush for over 60 yards in one of their road losses, and that came against Conference USA opponent East Carolina. They have also never passed for more than 160 in these games, and are averaging only 10.25 points per game. That won't get it done against the Hokies in Lane Stadium. The Tech defense is first in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.2 points per game.

While the Cavalier offense has struggled mightily, the defense has played much better than expected. They have kept UVA in games, and they are the reason the Cavs are close to being bowl eligible.

This UVA defense will be one of the better defenses the Hokies have faced all season. Despite some important losses in their front seven, the UVA 3-4 defense has held up well this year, despite having no seniors in the two deep in the front seven.

The headliner of the defensive line is defensive end Chris Long (6-4, 284). Long is the son of NFL Hall of Famer Howie Long. He is a very physical player who gives great effort. He has nine tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks on the season. The junior Long is very good, but from a statistical standpoint, he hasn't been as productive as his r-freshman teammate at defensive end, Jeffrey Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald has had an outstanding season for UVA, and looks like he will go on to a great career if he can stay healthy. The 6-3, 279 Fitzgerald has 11 tackles for loss on the season, as well as 5.5 sacks. He also has an interception and two fumble recoveries. He has established himself as one of UVA's top defensive playmakers.

The Cavs haven't gotten as much production out of their nose tackle position. They use the trio of Allen Billyk, Nate Collins and Keenan Carter. Those players have combined for just four tackles for loss on the year. But to be fair, nose tackles in a 3-4 scheme rarely rack up huge stats. Still, they could be considered the weakest link on UVA's defensive line.

UVA starts three sophomores and a junior at linebacker. The leading tackler on the team is inside linebacker Jon Copper, a former walk-on from Northside High School in Roanoke. Copper has 75 tackles, eight tackles for loss and four sacks. The other inside linebacker, Antonio Appleby, has 62 tackles and three tackles for loss.

Jermaine Dias and Clint Sintim are playmakers from their outside linebacker positions, especially Sintim. The sophomore has eight tackles for loss and three sacks. Dias has 41 tackles and four tackles for loss.

The Virginia Tech offensive line will be challenged by the UVA front seven. The Cavs will use their linebackers to bring blitzes, and the Hokies have to be able to pick them up. It will also be a big game for Kenny Lewis and George Bell, who don't have much experience. They need to recognize where the blitz is coming from and pick it up.

The UVA secondary didn't have a very good season in 2005, but they are much improved this year. The secondary features players like seniors Marcus Hamilton and Tony Franklin, who have a lot of experience.

Hamilton is UVA's best defensive back from a statistical standpoint. He has five interceptions on the year and 15 for his career, making him a strong candidate for First Team All-ACC honors this year. He has also broken up four passes on the season.

Nate Lyles is the hardest hitter in the UVA secondary. He has 46 tackles with four tackles for loss from his safety position, where he splits time with Tony Franklin. Chris Cook seems to have taken over the cornerback position opposite of Marcus Hamilton. He is third on the team in tackles with 56, including 2.5 for loss.

But as good as UVA's defense has been this year on the whole, they haven't played very well in the Cavs' four road losses.

The UVA defense, particularly the secondary, has struggled on the road this season. If Sean Glennon gets time, he will probably have some open targets in the defensive backfield.

Virginia's special teams have been solid this year. Be ready to see Chris Gould on the field a lot on Saturday. He handles field goals, kickoffs and punts for the Cavaliers.

The Hokies have an advantage when it comes to field goals. Gould is 7-of-7 from inside 40 yards this year, but just 4-of-12 from beyond 40 yards. Meanwhile, Tech's Brandon Pace is 16-of-16 for the season and has nailed 21 consecutive field goals dating back to last season. If this turns into a field goal war, the Hokies will probably win.

Gould also has 54 punts on the year, averaging 38.5 yards per punt. Virginia will also use Ryan Weigand, who has 18 punts for an average of 41.5 yards. UVA has had one punt blocked this year, but they have also blocked three punts. That's something to watch for when Nic Schmitt is on the field.

Virginia has one very dangerous kickoff returner in running back Cedric Peerman. Peerman averages 27.7 yards per return, with a long of 62 on the season.

With Branden Ore out, Virginia does have a better chance in this game, but they are going to have to dramatically improve their road performance and their performance against Virginia Tech in general.

We all remember last year's 52-14 victory. With the exception of UVA's victory in 2003, this has been a one-sided series recently.

In their last six victories over Virginia, the Hokies have won by about three touchdowns each time. In fact, none of those six wins were particularly close, though the 2002 game was interesting until late.

With those types of results, it's easy to see that there is a talent advantage, not to mention a coaching advantage, in Blacksburg, VA. That hasn't changed since last season, and it will be the difference in the game Saturday.

UVA's defense will keep the game close, but the Hokies will win comfortably in the end.

Will Stewart's Take: At first glance, this looks like a good matchup, a defensive struggle. Virginia's got the talent on defense to give the Hokie offense a hard time, particularly with Branden Ore either out or gimpy for the game. There's also the question of Brandon Frye's ankle, which could be a problem against UVA's talented defensive ends. On the other side of the ball, we all know that the Virginia Tech defense is really hitting its stride right now and is a tough challenge for a UVA offense that has floundered on the road.

The road. That becomes what this is all about, and for Virginia, the road has been unkind. If you throw out the Duke game, Virginia has played four other solid-to-good teams on the road: Pittsburgh, GT, ECU, and Florida State. And they have gotten pasted, as Chris outlined above, and more specifically, their offense has struggled. That doesn't set up well for the Hoos' chances to score against Tech in Lane.

In looking over Virginia's stats and pondering this game, I realized something: I don't think I've ever predicted the Hokies to shut an opponent out. Even if I'm projecting the Hokies to blow someone out, I usually give the other team three points or seven points, because I figure not everything can go right for the full 60 minutes.

This time, I'm going to pick the shutout. In order for this to happen, the defense, special teams, and offense all have to play mistake-free football. You can make small mistakes, but not big ones.

Offensively for VT, I think Virginia's defense will do well, but like Wake's defense, they won't be able to play a perfect game, and they'll surrender points here and there. As an offense struggles, like I'm predicting Virginia's will, the pressure on the defense builds, and mistakes are magnified.

Not a particularly scientific analysis, but a large portion of my game predictions have always been gut feel, anyway. Even with Ore out, I think the Hokies are building up speed as they approach the finish line to the 2006 season.

2006 TSL Football Game Predictions (Through Wake Forest; Closest Prediction Highlighted)
Game	Chris' Prediction (3 wins)	Will's Prediction (4 wins)	Phil's Projection (5 wins)	Result
N'Eastern	65-0	63-7	49-3	38-0
UNC	23-10	27-10	24-9	35-10
Duke	34-0	30-3	37-0	36-0
Cincinnati	34-6	31-3	38-3	29-13
GT	13-16	10-17	24-9	27-38
BC	30-17	27-20	20-17	3-22
S. Miss	24-6	23-10	27-6	36-6
Clemson	16-24	10-30	22-21	24-7
Miami	17-13	16-14	20-17	17-10
Kent State	38-0	31-3	44-7	23-0
Wake Forest	13-9	17-10	19-13	27-6