TechSideline.com: 2006 Football Game Preview

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Game time forecast, as of 3:30 pm Tuesday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Temperature 43.

Virginia Tech played their best football game of the season on Saturday night when they knocked off Southern Miss 36-6. The Hokies improved in some important parts of the game, like running the football and putting pressure on the quarterback. If they hope to beat the Clemson Tigers on Thursday night, the Southern Miss game will have to quickly become their second best game of the year.

Clemson is on a major winning streak right now, at 7-1 overall and 4-1 in the ACC. And if anyone in the ACC can be considered a cut above the rest, it is the Tigers. Last Saturday night, Clemson hosted the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, the team who beat the Hokies by 11 in Lane Stadium in September, and Clemson smacked GT around, 31-7.

Clemson played old school football. They only passed the ball 16 times during the game, opting to run two of the most explosive running backs in the nation behind what is probably the best offensive line on the East Coast. The result was a 21 carry, 218 yard performance from former VT recruiting target James Davis. But that's not all. Backup C.J. Spiller had 116 yards on 16 carries, and also had a 50 yard reception for a touchdown.

Clemson has run through its 2006 schedule with relative ease, winning games by scores such as 54-6 (Florida Atlantic), 52-7 (UNC), 51-0 (Louisiana Tech) and 63-9 (Temple). Their only loss came at Boston College 34-33 in overtime on September 9 in a game where the Tigers had two extra points blocked. The Tigers are a better football team than BC, but a lack of execution in the kicking game cost them a chance at an undefeated season.

In some ways, the Hokies are at a major disadvantage on Thursday night. But other factors make it seem like they have a real shot to win the game. First let's take a look at what Clemson has on each side of the ball.

Clemson has, by far, the best offense in the ACC. The Tigers are averaging 456.25 yards per game on the season, while second place Boston College is well behind at 349 yards per game. But that's just the beginning. Clemson is at or near the top of the ACC in just about every important category.

The main question mark coming into this season was fifth year senior quarterback Will Proctor, who had to replace long time starter Charlie Whithurst. Proctor has responded by being one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the ACC. He plays very well within the Clemson system, and he got off to a lightning start in 2006.

However, Proctor hasn't been as effective as of late, probably because Clemson lost a couple of key receivers to injuries, and opposing defensive coordinators now have more film on Proctor.

Clemson played Temple between Wake and Georgia Tech, and Proctor lit the Owls up. But I'm not counting that one. We won't go there.

In Clemson's most recent ACC games, Proctor has struggled. And because Virginia Tech is one of the top teams in the nation against the pass, and Bud Foster is a master of mixing coverages to confuse quarterbacks and force turnovers, look for the Tigers to run the ball early and often.

Clemson features the most talented and experienced offensive line in the ACC. They will start two juniors at left tackle and left guard, and three seniors will start at center, right guard and right tackle. They are big, physical and they blow everyone they play off the line. Let's take a look at them from left to right:

Chris McDuffie, a junior from Danville, VA, is a new starter. The normal starter at left guard, Roman Fry, was injured in last week's game against Georgia Tech, and McDuffie came in and played well. Fry was injured in the third play of the game, so the Tigers were able to dominate the game on the ground even with one of their important starters out.

Clemson also has two big tight ends who help in the running game in 6-4, 255 senior Thomas Hunter and 6-5, 260 sophomore Akeem Robinson.

All of those players help pave the way for perhaps the best running back duo in the nation in sophomore James Davis (5-11, 205) and freshman C.J. Spiller (5-11, 190). Both backs are having outstanding seasons and are capable of making a big play at any point.

Davis is the leading rusher in the ACC and ninth in the nation with 120.13 yards per game on the ground. He is averaging 6.9 yards per carry on the season and has scored 16 touchdowns. He is a very powerful runner, so the Hokies will have to get their heads across his body and wrap him up when he has the ball on Thursday night, because he will break any arm tackle that comes his way.

Davis suffered a shoulder stinger against Georgia Tech on Saturday night and is listed as questionable for the game on Thursday. However, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't play. He had the injury for most of the game last Saturday night and was still extremely effective.

Davis' backup is exciting freshman C.J. Spiller, who has 523 yards rushing on 77 carries this year, which is a 6.8 yards per carry average. Spiller also has seven rushing touchdowns on the year. He is equally as dangerous in the passing game with 12 receptions for 184 yards and two touchdowns.

If there is any player in college football today that should remind you of Reggie Bush, it is C.J. Spiller. He has great speed and the ability to make anybody miss in the open field. The Tigers are a threat to score from anywhere on the field when he is in the game. He had 50 yard touchdowns on the ground and in the air against Georgia Tech, and has a long run of 72 yards and a long reception of 82 yards on the season.

Clemson does have question marks at receiver. Chansi Stuckey is still their leading receiver despite missing three games with a fracture in his foot. He has 25 receptions for 331 yards and three touchdowns on the season. He is supposed to return to action on Thursday night, but don't expect him to be very effective.

If Stuckey could have come back against Georgia Tech on Saturday, he would have, because it was such a big game. But he did not play, which indicates that he wasn't ready physically. So how much more ready will he be just five days later? Probably not very. Plus, it's going to be cold and possibly rainy in Lane Stadium on Thursday night, which will tighten up his foot. Don't expect a lot of big plays from Stuckey.

Sophomore wideout Rendrick Taylor is also out for the season. Despite missing two games, he is still the team's third leading receiver. Starting for the Tigers on Thursday will be sophomores Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham.

Kelly (6-4, 180) is the most dangerous. He is very athletic and can leap over the best defensive backs.

With injuries at wide receiver and the running game heating up, look for Clemson to keep the ball on the ground on Thursday night and play conservatively. With as much talent as they have in the backfield, that would be a wise strategy.

If not for season ending injuries to starting linebackers Anthony Waters and Tramaine Billie, Clemson would probably be undefeated right now. The replacements got their feet wet to start the season, but have since developed into one of the top defenses in the nation. In fact, they are just about as good as the Clemson offense.

Not bad, especially when you consider the loss of two senior linebackers. The Tigers are physical, athletic, and they are by far Tommy Bowden's best group of defenders since he arrived at Clemson.

The Tigers start three sophomores and a senior. The best player of the group is senior defensive end Gaines Adams. Adams is the best defensive end in the ACC, and he spends most of the game in the opposing backfield. At 6-5, 260, he has long arms and can get off blocks. Gaines has 11.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks on the season. He also has 18 quarterback hurries, so the Virginia Tech offensive line is going to have to play well. Adams will be a major problem if he gets matched up on one of Tech's young tight ends.

Phillip Merling, a 6-4, 270 sophomore, is the other defensive end, and he has 6.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks on the year. He actually has one more tackle for loss against the run than Adams. Merling has 12 quarterback hurries on the year, so both Tiger defense ends are a major threat.

Clemson is pretty deep at defensive end. Backups include blue chip true freshman Ricky Sapp, who has three sacks and five tackles for loss on the year. Brandon Cannon is a pass rushing specialist with three sacks on the season.

Clemson starts a couple of sophomores at defensive tackle. As a group, they aren't as effective as the defensive ends. Starters Dorell Scott and John McKissic have combined for 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks on the year. Backups Rashaad Jackson and Donnell Clark play nearly as much as the starters, but have not made any tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

The linebackers are light, but they are fast and aggressive. They are headlined by junior weakside linebacker Nick Watkins (6-2, 220). Watkins leads the team in tackles with 61, six of which have come in the backfield. Sophomore middle linebacker Antonio Clay has 52 tackles on the year, with 7.5 tackles for loss. He is the biggest playmaker of the linebacking corps. The third linebacker is Maurice Nelson, the undersized strongside linebacker at 6-2, 215.

Clemson also has some depth at linebacker, with three backups seeing at least 94 defensive snaps on the season. This group is outstanding running from sideline to sideline. The Hokies need to establish some kind of running game up the middle. Clemson's defensive tackles don't make a lot of tackles for loss, and the size of the Tigers' linebackers dictate that Tech should run right at them.

Clemson came into the season with an inexperienced secondary, but they have played much better than expected. Duane Coleman, a former running back, has started every game at cornerback this season. He is second on the team in tackles with 55. He is physical, but he does not have any interceptions on the year.

Three different players have started at the opposite corner spot, including C.J. Gaddis, Chris Chancellor and Haydrian Lewis. Gaddis will get the start against the Hokies. He is capable of playing safety or cornerback, making him a very valuable member of the secondary.

Cornerback Crezdon Butler leads the team in interceptions with three, despite not starting a game all season.

CAT safety Michael Hamlin has started just five games this year because of injury, but he is a very good player. He started last season as a freshman. At 6-3, 200, he has prototypical safety size. Sophomore Chris Clemons will start at free safety, and he is fourth on the team with 51 stops.

Clemson is pretty good in the kicking game, especially returning kicks. True freshman sensation wide receiver Jacoby Ford has made a big impact with the ball in his hands. Ford is averaging 36.1 yards on seven kick returns, including one 94 yarder he returned for a touchdown. He also averages 12.5 yards per punt return. He brought back a punt 92 yards for a touchdown.

After having several punts blocked last season, Cole Chason has rebounded with a much better 2006. He is averaging 42.1 yards per punt. He has punted just 22 times in eight games, which shows the talent level of Clemson's offense.

Kicker Jad Dean has had a strange season. Dean had a field goal and several extra points blocked early in the season, which cost Clemson the game against Boston College, and nearly cost them a second game against Florida State. Dean is perfect from inside 30 yards this year at 5-of-5. He is just 1-of-3 from 30-39 yards, but 2-of-2 from 40-49 yards. Dean has not made a kick from beyond 50 yards.

Ok, so Clemson is very, very good. But they aren't invincible. Not by a long shot. Boston College has already proven that. Florida State nearly did. And Wake Forest had a victory over the Tigers all but wrapped up until they fumbled it away. What do those three games have in common for the Tigers? They were all on the road.

Clemson has a history of putting up some stinkers on the road under Tommy Bowden. They have lost a lot of big road games, many in blowout fashion, such as 30-10 at UVA, 41-22 at Florida State, 27-6 at Texas A&M and 45-17 at Wake Forest. They even lost at Duke in 2004, and only beat the Blue Devils by three in 2002 in Durham. Simply put, Clemson has a knack for losing big games, and games they aren't expected to lose, especially on the road.

The Tigers find themselves in the spotlight every year, because of their reputation and the pressure their rabid fan base puts on coach Tommy Bowden. Pretty much every year they come up with some huge wins, but they have also lost some games they should have won. This year they have managed to avoid losses to teams they should beat (BC is pretty good in case you didn't notice). History says they are due for such a game.

There are still a few other factors that could give Virginia Tech an advantage. Clemson played a big game last Saturday. College Gameday was in town, and it was a very emotional moment for the Tigers. Can they possibly be as intense just five days later in Blacksburg? Can they possibly play as well as they did against Georgia Tech? Probably not, as the Tigers have had trouble staying up emotionally under Tommy Bowden.

Also, Clemson has to travel to Blacksburg on Wednesday. They won't be able to get as much preparation time for the Hokies as they would like. And unfortunately for Clemson, this is a week where they need extra time to prepare for Tech. VT showed new looks last Saturday with Ike Whitaker in the game, and blitzed a lot more with the defense. The Tigers have less time to prepare for all of that.

Bear with me, because I've got more signs that point to a VT victory. Clemson is 1-6 under Tommy Bowden in Thursday night games. Again, this harkens back to my point that Clemson has not performed well overall in the limelight under Bowden.

And finally, Frank Beamer and Virginia Tech thrive in the underdog role. The Hokies aren't underdogs at home very often. The last time a visiting team was favored in Lane Stadium was 2003 when Miami came to town, and the Hokies walked away as 31-7 winners.

Virginia Tech has a lot of things going their way heading into this game, besides the fact that they are coming off their best performance of the season. That said, I can't pick against Clemson. They are simply too experienced up front on offense, and too explosive in the backfield and kicking game.

Will Stewart's Take: Like Chris, I can see how Virginia Tech can win this game, I just don't think it's likely.

I'm not a coach, I don't play one on TV, and I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But the formula for beating Clemson seems clear: stop the run, pressure Proctor into mistakes, and capitalize. That's a simple strategy if you're playing chess (pardon the Al Groh reference) and attacking pawns with bishops, rooks, nights, and queens. But it's more the other way around here. Clemson is peaking with talent and experience this season.

The problem for the Hokies is that "stopping the run" is much easier said than done. The Tigers are deep on the offensive line, and James Davis and C.J. Spiller are amazing talents. Like Branden Ore, you can have them bottled up, only to give up a big play. Unlike Branden Ore, Davis and Spiller are rarely bottled up. The Clemson o-line is adept at opening big holes and creating running lanes. Clemson did it against a Georgia Tech defense that is pretty good, though not as good as the Hokies.

To stop the run, the Hokies need to do three things: crowd the box, blitz the run gaps, and tackle well. It's that third thing that gives me pause, because the Hokies haven't been tackling well this season, and many plays will have to be made one-on-one in this game. Xavier Adibi is slowed with a shoulder stinger, Vince Hall has a thigh bruise, and Brenden Hill is not nearly as physical as his predecessor, James Anderson.

I don't like the combination of Clemson's strong o-line, their two-headed tailback system, VT's spotty tackling this year, and Tech's dinged-up linebackers.

Offensively, the Hokies' biggest problem is that Clemson is bringing a big-boy defense to Lane Stadium, not a bunch of adolescents dressed up as a defense for Halloween. We've seen the Hokie offense turtle-up on the road against both UNC and BC, and while this is a home game, Clemson is good enough on defense that the instinct to go into the shell and throw those flanker screens, in an effort to avoid mistakes, will be strong on the Hokie offense. Mounting long drives will be a serious, serious challenge for VT.

To the Hokies' credit, they could have the advantage in the kicking game, where Brandon Pace is perfect and Nic Schmitt is finally on a roll. If the Hokies can control field position and make some special teams plays, it will alter the game drastically. If it comes down to Jad Dean vs. Brandon Pace, I like Tech's odds.

But I just don't think it will get to that. I think the Hokies will feed off the Thursday atmosphere and the home crowd, and they'll hang around, but Clemson will pull away with a couple of devastating touchdowns late.

(Don't like it? Tune in next week, when I pick VT to win on the road at Miami -- gasp!)

2006 TSL Football Game Predictions (Through S. Miss; Closest Prediction Highlighted)
Game	Chris' Prediction (2 wins)	Will's Prediction (2 wins)	Phil's Projection (4 wins)	Result
N'Eastern	65-0	63-7	49-3	38-0
UNC	23-10	27-10	24-9	35-10
Duke	34-0	30-3	37-0	36-0
Cincinnati	34-6	31-3	38-3	29-13
GT	13-16	10-17	24-9	27-38
BC	30-17	27-20	20-17	3-22
S. Miss	24-6	23-10	27-6	36-6