Saturday, November 8th, 2003, 7:45

TV: ESPN (national)

Forecast (from WeatherUnderground.com):
Click the "Pittsburgh Weather" link to the right.
As of 10:00 am Thursday: "Isolated flurries in the morning...then partly sunny. Highs near 40."

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/Pitt roster card

After what very well may be the biggest win in the Frank Beamer era, a 31-7 pummeling of the previously unbeaten Miami Hurricanes, the fifth ranked 7-1 Virginia Tech Hokies go on the road to face a loaded and dangerous 6-2 Pittsburgh team. The Panthers had very high expectations coming into the season, as the media picked them ahead of VT and some even anointed them the heir to Miami's spot at the top of the Big East. While they presently reside in the top 25, Pitt has suffered two of their seemingly traditional and inexplicable out of conference losses, with the upsets being administered by Toledo and Notre Dame.

Despite the inherent joyride that is Pitt football, the Panthers always bring their A game when they play the Hokies, and this season they are as talented offensively as they have ever been. In fact, unless VT plays Michigan in the Rose Bowl, Pitt likely has the best set of skill position players the Hokies will see all year long. Throw in the fact that the Panthers are the only unbeaten team in the conference, and you have the makings for a big-time showdown at Heinz Field.

If you haven't figured it out already, Pittsburgh is about the toughest annual matchup for our defense. Head Coach Walt Harris does a lot of things schematically that pose problems for our defense, and he typically has the passing game personnel to cause VT's defense fits. It is worth noting, however, last year’s game was ultimately decided by Pittsburgh’s 275 yards on the ground.

The numbers for the Panthers' offense are impressive. They average 33.4 points per game, one of the top twenty figures nationwide, and are nationally ranked in pass efficiency (fifth overall), fewest interceptions (seventh overall), fewest fumbles lost (15th overall) and passing offense (12th). Although Pittsburgh is close to 50/50 on their run/pass ratio (298/271), Pittsburgh’s production is heavily geared towards the air as they average 303 passing yards per game and only 118.5 rushing yards per contest.

The figurative leader of the offense is underrated fifth year senior quarterback Rod Rutherford. Rutherford possesses excellent size (6'3", 225 lbs.) and good athletic ability. Rutherford also has very good pocket presence as exemplified by his phenomenal 25-5 touchdown to interception ratio. He should be the first team all Big East quarterback this season.

Statistics occasionally lie, and they certainly do with respect to Rutherford’s running ability. His anemic 1.3 yards per carry would suggest he can't run, but he is capable of making plays with his legs. His problem is that his 290 yards rushing is offset by the fact that he has lost 195 yards on negative plays this year (more on that later), and that kills his average.

The Pittsburgh running game really suffered when star senior tailback Brandon Miree went down in the third game of the season with a stress fracture. Miree is big (6'0", 230 lbs.), tough and fast, and he ran over and through the Hokies last year. However, most indications are that he will not be playing this weekend, and perhaps won't be ready for a few more weeks.

The Panthers have instead shared carries at the tailback spot. The starter probably will be 5'10" 215 SO Jawan Walker. Walker has a nice burst, but he is not the threat that Miree is. Walker has rushed for 329 yards on the season with a 4.0 per rush average. Combo back Tim Murphy is a tough junior who at 235 is often counted on in short yardage situations. Murphy's role has increased as the season has progressed, and he started the Panthers' last game, a win over BC. Murphy is only averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Walker and Murphy have combined for 13 catches with both averaging at least 10 yards per catch.

Fullback Lousaka Polite is a very good football player who is underappreciated. Much like Doug Easlick, Polite is great at all the little things like blitz pickup that make him a very valuable member of the Pittsburgh offense. Polite has 42 carries on the year, a fairly high number for a traditional fullback, and he also is fourth on the team with 16 catches with an average of 9.7 per reception.

The running game is not Pitt's moneymaker. No Pitt running back has gained more than 100 yards rushing since Miree in the opening game, and Pitt has been outrushed in each of their last six games.

At wide receiver, the Panthers have the best player in the country. 6'3", 225 lb. SO Larry Fitzgerald is a man among boys at the college level. The stats don't tell the whole story, but I'll give you some of them anyway: he leads Division I-A in five categories - receiving yards per game with 146.75, total receiving yards (1,171), receiving touchdowns (16), total touchdowns (16) and scoring. He is fifth in receptions per game. He has already set the Big East record for receiving touchdowns in a season this year, and he holds the NCAA record with a touchdown reception in 14 consecutive games and counting. He also has the record for career touchdowns through a player's freshman and sophomore season combined, with a third of the season still pending. Fitzgerald had three touchdowns versus the Hokies last year on plays in which the coverage was solid.

Above and beyond the numbers, what sets Fitzgerald apart is his phenomenal body control. In the last 15 years, the only college receiver even comparable to Fitzgerald on jump balls was Randy Moss, and Moss managed to succeed by using his height and superior leaping ability to elevate over people. Fitzgerald routinely uses his big body to ward off defenders, and then he simply goes up and gets the ball. Coverage is often rendered irrelevant. He isn't just a possession guy with his size, though: Fitzgerald averages an amazing 19.6 yards per reception. He very rarely drops passes, and fundamentally catches the ball away from his body extremely well. I am not a big proponent of drafting wide receivers highly, but if he's not a top five pick whenever he comes out (and apparently he won't be eligible until the '05 draft) then some NFL General Managers need to be fired.

Pittsburgh is extremely proficient in the red zone – they have scored on 26 of their 30 possessions inside the twenty, including 21 touchdowns. Having the fade route to Fitzgerald is a big reason why.

Fitzgerald's sidekick is 6'3", 205 SR Princell Brockenbrough from Richmond. Brockenbrough has thrived as the "other guy," averaging a whopping 20.3 yards per reception this season on 19 catches. He is going to see a lot of single coverage given the Panthers' weapons, and he capitalizes. Two true freshman have started games at various times this season, Greg Lee and Terrell Allen, and both appear to be in line to continue Pitt's building wide receiver tradition.

Another weapon in the Pittsburgh arsenal is tight end Kris Wilson. Wilson, a 6'3", 250 lb. SR, is the second leading receiver on the team with 26 catches and an impressive five touchdowns. He averages 13.3 per catch, a nice figure for a tight end. If he was in a conference without Winslow, he likely would be a first team all league pick. As it is, he is a very, very good player and highly underrated on the national scene.

To underscore how potent Pittsburgh's passing game is, the Panthers average 15.4 yards per catch. Big play ability is all over this offense.

The Panthers offensive line was expected to be a very strong point this season, but they haven't been as good as some expected. Three full time starters returned from last season, headlined by preseason all league pick Rob Pettitti, the 6'6", 330 lb. left tackle. Pettitti has started every game during his career at left tackle and has the nasty disposition that coaches like in offensive linemen. Next to him is a three year starter, 6’4", 290 lb. SR Dan LaCarte. To the extent they run in short yardage, Pittsburgh probably will likely look to go left.

Two other seniors start on the line, 6’4", 300 lb. SR center Jon Schall and 6’7", 300 lb. SR right tackle Matt Morgan. The final starter is a sophomore, 6’3", 300 lb. Jon Simonitis.

The numbers for the offensive line aren’t very good, especially given the abundance of skill position talent for the Panthers. Pittsburgh only averages 3.2 yards per rush, and Rutherford has been sacked 20 times for 166 yards in losses. Perhaps the most important matchup of this game is the Pittsburgh front five versus the VT defensive line.

If VT wins up front, they will be in much better shape to contain the Panthers downfield with a zone umbrella coverage.

The Panther D has pulled a Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde act this year. Through the first six games, the Panthers were dreadful, as they yielded over 400 yards of offense and nearly 23 points per game against many subpar teams. In the last two weeks against BC and Syracuse, the defense has only permitted 13.5 points and 265 total yards per game.

On the season, Pittsburgh allows 4.0 yards per rush and 158 rushing yards per game, while through the air, teams average 213 yards per game. The statistics don’t really suggest one particular way to attack the Panthers.

The leader of this defense was supposed to be 6’4", 255 lb. defensive end Claude Harriott. He had three sacks against VT last year and was generally all over the field. This year, though, Harriott has struggled in part because of nagging injuries. He only has 22 tackles on the year, with 7 tackles for a loss and two sacks. He does lead the team with 13 quarterback hurries. The bookend for Harriott is first year starter Thomas Smith, who has 25 stops on the season and 9 quarterback hurries.

Both defensive tackles are seniors and returning starters. 6’4", 290 lb. Vince Crochunis plays the nose and has been productive with 35 tackles already this year, including 5.5 tackles for a loss. 6’2", 290 Dan Stephens has similar stats with 34 tackles and 4.5 tackles for a loss.

Pittsburgh undoubtedly misses the omnipresent Gerald Hayes at linebacker. While returning strongside starter Lewis Moore has taken his position in the middle and done well, he has not been able to fill Hayes’ large shoes.

Moore leads the team with 80 tackles, including 5 for a loss, and he has recovered three fumbles and forced two. He has good size at 6’2", 245, and as a senior, he is a leader on the defense. The second leading tackler for the Panthers is strongside linebacker Brian Bennett, a 6’0", 235 lb. SO who leads the team with 3 sacks. Last week he had two sacks, 3 TFLs, and 10 overall tackles against BC. Pushing him for playing time is true freshman H.B. Blades, son of former Miami Hurricane star Bennie Blades. Blades has 39 tackles in limited time. The final linebacker is first year SR starter Malcolm Postell who has tallied 44 tackles, fourth on the team, and two interceptions. Three of Pittsburgh’s top four tacklers are their linebackers, so keep an eye out for them on Saturday.

The secondary is led by SR corner Shawntae Spencer. Spencer has nice size at 6’2", 180 lbs., and he has 39 tackles, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 2 forced fumbles on the year. He is Pittsburgh’s best cover guy and the guy to watch for in the secondary. The other corner has been split between SO Josh Lay, who got the start the first four games, and SR William "Tutu" Ferguson, who has started the last four. They will likely share time.

The run enforcer in the secondary is SR free safety Tez Morris. Morris, third on the team with 50 tackles, is a returning starter who isn’t afraid to hit people. JR strong safety Tyrone Gilliard is also a returning starter who is active in run support with 39 tackles on the season.

Despite Pitt’s overall success versus VT, the Hokies have the whammy on them here. VT has blocked a kick in each of the last six meetings versus the Panthers, and I have to believe that was a point of emphasis for Coach Harris this week.

The Panthers have one of the best punters in the country in 6’2", 205 lb. Andy Lee. Lee is sixth nationally with a 45.7 average, but, more importantly, has a net punt average of 40.1 yards, which is outstanding. Lee was the Big East Special Teams Player of the Year last year, and he is a strong candidate again this season. He has not had a kicked block in 2003. Opponents average 10.2 per return against the Panthers when they get the chance.

After a very good season last year, placekicker David Abdul has had a mediocre sophomore season. He is only 7-15 on his attempts this year, and he missed two last week against BC (from 27 and 44 yards). Pittsburgh has a true freshman kickoff specialist, Adam Graessle, who has 26 touchbacks in 50 kickoffs. The average return is 24.4 yards.

The returners for the Panthers are solid statistically, but not spectacular. Ferguson returns punts and averages 9.7 per return, including one 71 yarder, and the bulk of the kickoffs are handled by Allen, who is averaging 17.1 per return. The team average of 15.3 per kickoff return is low.

Looking at trends, the winning team in this game has scored at least 30 points in three of the last four games, and last year Pitt put up enough yards to get 30 even though they only finished with 28. Even conceding that the VT defense may have played its finest ever game against a top notch opponent last week, I can’t see this year’s game with Pitt being a defensive slugfest.

Putting on my coaches’ headphones, I think VT will look to shorten the game by running at the Panthers. Julius Jones lit them up for 262 yards, and while the Pitt defense has significantly improved, with Kevin Jones and the VT offensive line expect a lot of running plays early. I think VT will run a few more options and toss sweeps, this week as the Panthers don’t have Miami’s defensive speed. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a few new wrinkles with Marcus Vick in the game either at quarterback or wide receiver. Marcus should get more time this week than he has gotten earlier in the year.

On defense, the key to controlling Fitzgerald is by forcing Rutherford to move in the pocket. While Rutherford does have mobility, he is not nearly as dangerous outside the pocket on the run.

The likely absence of Miree could be big, as Walker doesn’t have his physicality and Murphy doesn’t have his footwork in the hole. Walker is effective on toss sweeps, so the contain defenders outside will have to hold their leverage.

I expect Bud Foster – who by the way called a spectacular game against the Canes – to play a lot of zone against Fitzgerald in the first half with Hall’s absence and when VT goes man to give deep help with Jimmy Williams. Jimmy will have to be on his toes and can’t afford to bite on play action this week. Regardless, VT knows Fitzgerald will get his yards.

The Hokies need to make sure that Wilson and Brockenbrough don’t come up with huge games in light of the single coverage they will be receiving. Because Pitt tends to max protect against VT, I think Foster will eschew blitzing regularly although he likely will turn up the heat on obvious passing downs.

While I do expect Pittsburgh to get some points, I think the VT running game and special teams will overpower the Panthers in the end.

Will Stewart's Take: VT will break the Pittsburgh curse this year.

The big key for the Hokies is to run the football. I think VT's offensive line will do well against Pitt -- an improved Jon Dunn has got to be foaming at the mouth to take on the Panthers, who embarrassed him last year -- and with the proficiency of Pitt's linebackers, the blocking of Doug Easlick is a big key. If Easlick can take care of the linebackers and spring Kevin Jones into the Pitt secondary, the 220-pound KJ will encounter four DBs who all weigh under 200 pounds. Pitt's heaviest secondary player is 5-11, 195-pound strong safety Tyrone Gilliard. Have at 'em, KJ.

KJ is instrumental in another big VT key: blitz blocking. Pitt has not hesitated to flood VT's offensive backfield with their linebackers -- remember the play Michael Vick got injured on in 2000? -- and KJ's improved blitz pickup ability will be a difference-maker.

I expect Marcus Vick to play quite a bit, because Vick's vision and acceleration will be important if the Panthers apply a heavy pass rush. Vick has better escapability than Bryan Randall, and he could hurt the Panthers for big gains if he breaks free. I don’t expect the Hokies to pass a lot with Vick at QB, on the road, against an experienced defense, so look for an offensive game plan very similar to what you saw against Miami, unless the Hokies fall behind early.

VT's offense, which has averaged just 215 yards and 8.5 points in the last two games, has got to improve for Tech to have a chance this week. Pittsburgh will not cough up the ball like Miami did, so the Hokie offense is going to have to produce some points, at least three touchdowns worth, I think.

Defensively, the key here for VT is to stop the run, of course. With Pitt's mediocre rushing numbers, if the Hokies play hard, they should be able to limit Pitt's rushing ability. Once that's accomplished, it's a question of players making plays, as Rod Rutherford's scrambling ability and throwing accuracy, plus Larry Fitzgerald's talents, will determine what happens here.

If the Hokies can stifle the running game and put Rutherford on his butt just a few times, here and there, they should be able to hold Pittsburgh under 30.

I think that Fitzgerald will get 150-180 yards and two touchdowns, but VT will hold the rest of the Pitt offense to a couple of field goals. On the VT side, the Hokies will get two "legit" offensive TDs, will have a third TD scored or set up by the special teams or defense, and will add a field goal somewhere along the way.

Will Stewart's Prediction: VT 24, Pittsburgh 20

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