| |
|
by Will Stewart, TechSideline.com, 11/22/00 Click here for Blacksburg Weather On Paper, a Mismatch. But Uncertainty Abounds. Last year, the Hokies dropped the hammer on a UVa football team that, like many other teams, simply couldn't compete with the 1999 Hokies. Tech shot out to a 28-7 half time lead and then mailed in the second half on the way to a decisive 31-7 victory. This year, a look at the statistics and an evaluation of the UVa team makes it look as if another steamroller job by the Hokies is forthcoming. A UVa team that was mediocre last year has floundered even further this year, and they have been putting up some poor numbers on their way to a 6-4 record. But don't bet the house on the Hokies, and the 20-point spread, just yet. Storm clouds are swirling, both literally and figuratively. External factors, in the form of rain and a UNC athletic department with no football coach and money to burn, could make this game anyone's call. But as they say, throw out the records when these two play. And in recent years, the home-field advantage hasn't counted for squat in this series. Beginning in 1992, the road team has won 6 of 8 games. The sole exceptions are VT 26-UVa 9 in 1996 and UVa 34-VT 20 in 1997. For this game preview, I'm taking a different approach, one I should have taken all year. As you know, I like to delve into statistics, and this time, I'm going to compare offensive and defensive units, instead of just talking about the opponent's statistics. The result is an interesting analysis that points to where this game will go and how it will be played. It also requires some bigger tables, hence, the vast amount of white space you see when compared to the usual TSL pre-game article. First, let's take a look at UVa's season to this point.
I would have to say the lone bright spots in this mess are the 17-6 win over a 5-5 UNC team, and last week's win over a 6-3 NC State team. But NC State is fading late -- they started 5-1, but a loss to FSU has been followed with a loss to Maryland, a narrow 35-31 win over a pitiful Duke team, and now a loss to UVa. It has been a rough season for the Hoos -- they blew a 21-point lead in an overtime loss to BYU, they gave up 228 yards rushing to 1-AA Richmond in a lackluster win, they were unimpressive against Duke, Wake, and Maryland, and they were hammered by Clemson and Georgia Tech. Something is missing with this UVa team. The
precision, the spark, and the intensity simply aren't there. And when you start digging into the statistics -- holy cow,
do these guys look weak. I'm used to a much better UVa team. I'm used to being scared of them. This year, I'm not
scared.
Now, for the new analysis I promised -- let's look at UVa's offense versus Tech's defense When UVa Has the Ball Category UVa Stat NCAA Rank Category Tech Stat NCAA Rank Passing Offense 199.3 ypg 69 Passing Defense 231.1 ypg 86 Rushing Offense 163.0 ypg 38 Rushing Defense 92.1 ypg 12 Total Offense 362.3 ypg 65 Total Defense 323.2 ypg 28 Scoring Offense 20.7 ppg 86 Scoring Defense 22.8 ppg 48 The UVa offense is struggling, no question, relative to their usual standards. The biggest problem is their offensive
line, which has been racked by injuries all year long. They lost Jared Woodson, their projected starting center, to a
neck injury, and he is out for the season. The rest of the OL has cycled in and out with injuries, and although many of
them are still banged up, the other four will play Saturday. Woodson has been replaced by Dustin Keith. One bright spot for Tech is that left tackle Jermese Jones can be beaten by a speed rush from the defensive end.
Jones doesn't have his footwork down right at this point in his career, and a guy like Corey Moore would eat him alive.
The problem is, Corey Moore plays for the Buffalo Bills now. Look for Jones, #74, and see if whoever lines up against
him at defensive end for Tech is able to apply pressure on the quarterback. Antwoine Womack is UVa's top rusher, with 894 total yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and 7 touchdowns on the year. Tyree
Foreman has 368 yards (5.6 ypc) and Arlen Harris has 101 yards (4.0 ypc) for the Cavaliers. Their running game is solid
but not a bread-and-butter attack like it was with Thomas Jones in the backfield. The receivers are also not up to par for what Tech fans are used to from UVa. They spread the wealth well -- five
receivers have 16 or more catches, though one of those is tight end Billy Baber -- but as a group, they have been
afflicted with the dropsies. Billy McMullen (30 catches, 541 yards, 3 TD's) and Demetrius Dotson (25 catches, 370 yards,
1 TD) are their top receivers, but they'll run 4 or 5 receivers in regularly. At quarterback, Dan Ellis (116-206, 1642 yards, 7 TD's, 4 INT's) is #32 in the nation in passing efficiency but has
been hampered by an injured hamstring for weeks now. Coach George Welsh is being coy and won't name a starter until
Saturday, and if it's not Ellis, it will be redshirt freshman Bryson Spinner, who has done well in limited action
(16-41, 279 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT's). Spinner brings more of a running threat than Ellis does, and he gets more and more
comfortable as time goes by. The Cavaliers will probably not run the ball well against Tech's 12th-ranked rushing defense, which means they'll
have to pass effectively, and it's questionable whether or not they can do that, even against a Tech pass defense that
has been woeful at times. UVa is not using their tight end and running backs as well as they have in the past, and their
wide receivers are not standouts, so Tech's best option may be to blitz UVa. The Hoos will be led by a gimpy Ellis or an inexperienced Spinner, and blitzing looks like a good strategy against
either one. Before that happens, though, the Hokies may lay back and see how effective their defensive line will be
against UVa's offensive line. Worth noting there is that Tech defensive tackle Chad Beasley, who had a good game against
UVa last year, is doubtful with an ankle injury. Overall, although this is a bit of a down year for the Tech defense, it's even more of a down year for the UVa
offense. I don't see them having much success against Tech, in a night game at Lane Stadium. Now, here's what Tech's offense looks like against UVa's defense: When Tech Has the Ball Category Category Passing Defense 241.0 ypg 98 Passing Offense 151.3 ypg 103 Rushing Defense 177.4 ypg 80 Rushing Offense 271.6 ypg 4 Total Defense 418.4 ypg 100 Total Offense 422.9 ypg 25 Scoring Defense 21.3 ppg 42 Scoring Offense 40.1 ppg 7 Incredibly, UVa's pass defense is worse than Tech's. But what's really stunning is how bad UVa's run defense is,
given that they have only played one top-30 rushing offense all year (Clemson). Here's the breakdown of how
UVa's opponents rank in the NCAA team rushing stats: UVa Opponents' Rushing Team NCAA Rushing Rank Clemson 10 Richmond 10 (1-AA) GT 33 FSU 35 Wake 57 UNC 58 NCSU 92 BYU 96 Duke 107 It's remarkable that despite having played a 1-AA team and six teams ranked in the bottom half of Division 1-A in
rushing offense, UVa is ranked #80 in the country in rushing defense. And now the Cavaliers face the #4 rushing offense
in the country, Virginia Tech. The Hokies' mandate is clear: run, run, and run some more. Big surprise there. Don't look
for Tech to pass more than 15 times, unless, for some reason, they have to. Last year, Tech only passed 9 times. So what about when Tech does have to pass? Well, first of all, Andre Davis either won't play at all, or won't be
healthy enough to make a difference, so don't count on Davis being able to burn UVa's Tim Spruill again, like he did
last year. But when it does come time for the Hokies to pass, they should be encouraged, because not only do the
Cavaliers have the #98 passing defense in the country, but they only have 10 interceptions on the year and a paltry 15
sacks. Defensive end Lube Stamenich, with just 4 sacks, is the only decent pass rusher on the Cavaliers' defensive line. DT
Monsanto Pope, DT Larry Simmons, and DE Darryl Sanders all have 2 sacks, but as a whole, the UVa defensive line does not
present a consistent pass rush threat. So what about the blitz? Tech has had trouble all year with blitzing teams. The Cavs may blitz -- their linebackers
account for the remaining 5 sacks -- but if the Hokies are running the ball effectively and coming into 2nd and short
and 3rd and short situations, the blitz is negated. The strength of the UVa defense is their linebacking crew: Byron Thweatt, Yubrenal Isabelle, and Donny Green are
their three leading tacklers, accounting for over a third of their tackles (by contrast, Tech's top three tacklers --
Ben Taylor, Jake Houseright, and Cory Bird -- only account for about a fourth of Tech's tackles). To give the Wahoos credit, they definitely bend but do not break. Despite giving up over 400 yards per game, they
surrender just 21.3 points per game. They give up yards between the 20 yard lines, but then they make it tough inside
the red zone. A perfect example of this is their game with UNC, in which they gave up 380 yards but just two field
goals. In summary, the Hokies will pound the UVa defense with the running game and will face one of the easier pass defenses
they have seen this year. But with Andre Davis out, the fact that UVa's pass defense is weak may not matter, and the
Hokies may not have much passing success. Look for the Tech running game to be featured prominently in this one, and for
the Hokies, red-zone conversion is the key. As you might expect, UVa has a huge advantage in the punting game, but Tech gets it back in the punt return game. Special Teams Stat UVa Tech Punting 42.7 ypp 33.9 ypp Punt Returns 6.0 ypr 18.3 ypr Kickoff Returns 20.8 ypr 18.4 ypr Kick blocks* 0 punts, 2 FG's 4 punts, 2 FG's Opp. Kick blocks 0 1 punt * blocked PAT's not included Field goal kicker David Greene is pretty good, at least statistically. He is 11-14 with a long of 48. The UVa web
site does not provide a breakdown of his attempts and misses with respect to yardage, so I can't pass on any information
there. He is opposed by Tech's Carter Warley, who is 7-9 with a long of 47. If they use Ryan Childress for their long snaps, as the UVa depth chart says, he is a freshman, so maybe he'll choke
up a bad snap when confronted with Tech's punt blocking unit and a night crowd at Lane Stadium. Ah, statistical analysis aside, here's where it gets dicey for Tech. I dislike the word "focus" when used in regards to athletics, but it is true that for the Hokies and their
coaches, the focus in the last two weeks has been everywhere but on the field. As speculation swirls around Beamer that
he may leave Tech, first for Alabama and now for UNC, the coach has done nothing to put an end to the rumors. He is now
carefully parsing his words on a daily basis to leave the door open to head elsewhere. The speculation has bled over into the players, with many of them giving quotes on the issue. In a
column by Bob Lipper of the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Chad Beasley was quoted as saying, "I don't see why he would
leave. He's the ruler of the roost in Blacksburg." Offensive lineman Dave Kadela said, ""It would be nice to know for
sure (if Beamer is staying)." It is not good that Tech's players are now thinking about Beamer's possible exit. These are 18-23 year old young men
who have enough time staying ... (ugh) focused as it is. If the Hokies lose this game, Coach Beamer, Jim Weaver, and
everyone else associated with the dance that is going on right now will get crucified. It's a big gamble for all
concerned to not take care of the Beamer situation and allow it to distract the players and coaches during the week
before the UVa game. On other "intangible" fronts, a night game in Lane Stadium is ordinarily a recipe for disaster for
visitors. But the weather forecast for Blacksburg is terrible for Saturday: a high of 49 degrees, with showers. Ugh. Yes, that favors the running team (Tech), but it tends to take the edge off the hysteria at Lane Stadium, as well.
Not to mention that all those chilly, wet Hokies will be sitting in their seats wondering if they're watching their last
Frank Beamer-coached Tech team. Despite all that, I just don't see UVa standing up to Tech in Lane Stadium. The Hokies have struggled at times in
compiling their 9-1 record, but by comparison, the Hoos definitely look adrift and not up to their usual standards.
As I said above, I'm used to being scared of them, and this year, they don't scare me. Can UVa win this game? Of course they can. It's one of those funky rivalry games where anything can happen (think
1998), and the Beamer situation is a huge X-factor. Will UVa win it? That's not likely, and pregame prognostications are
based on what's likely. Virginia Tech 31, UVa 10.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
