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Game Analysis: 2003 JMU Game
by Will Stewart, TechSideline.com, 9/10/03

Click here for TSL's Game Recap

All right, I'll fess up: I sat here for a couple days, letting this game percolate, waiting for inspiration to strike, and it never did. That doesn't mean we can't have some fun with this game analysis, but don't expect any earth-shattering revelations.

Jeff Ouellet, in his game preview, called this a refereed scrimmage, and I think that's accurate. JMU put up a pretty good fight for the first 20 minutes or so of the game, and then the Hokie defense clamped down, and the Hokie offense wore the Dukes down. That's what everyone expected, and the 43-0 final score was right in line with the 47-0 whipping that the Hokies laid on JMU four years ago, in Michael Vick's collegiate debut (sigh).

TSL Defensive Player
of the Game

picture: hokiesports.com
#36 Aaron Rouse
LB,
6-3, 207, rFr.
Score:
2
5.0 points

Click here for an
explanation of the
award and how the
scoring is done

In his first collegiate start, Aaron Rouse took home TSL Defensive Player of the Game honors. He led the Hokies with 11 tackles (4 solo tackles, 7 assists), and his wicked first-quarter hit on JMU running back Alvin Banks force a fumble.
Total: 25 points.
2nd: Chad Cooper, 24.0 points.

Without a game film (this one wasn't on TV, and darn it, I'm not on Tech's game tape distribution list), I'm not able to break the action down in any detail, so instead, let's take a look at some stats and trends, and I'll give you some thoughts I had as the Dukes were taking their lumps.

Cheap Shot!  Cheap Shot!

Who knows what got into JMU defensive tackle Demetrius Shambley? He rode Tech's Kevin Jones out of bounds on an early-second-quarter run, then gave KJ a good healthy shove about five yards out of bounds, sending Jones sprawling into the concrete wall that borders the field.

Fortunately, KJ wasn't seriously injured. He hyperextended his wrists, but he should be ready for the Texas A&M game on the 18th.

Some random thoughts:

  • So much for getting the inside of the stadium lined in Hokie stone. Whenever the subject comes up, people will just point to this play as an example of why that's a bad, bad, bad, bad idea.
  • Gotta hand it to the kid (Shambley) for making the tackle -- not the shove, the tackle. That's good pursuit, for a defensive tackle.
  • Football is a violent sport, and players sometimes do things in the heat of battle that they regret. Did Shambley do something stupid? Yep. Was it vicious? Yep. But what he did still doesn't top the eye-gouging, sucker-punching tactics used by Miami's Nate Webster in the 1999 VT/Miami game. Now, there's a guy who deserved to get thrown out and didn't.

(Journalism tactic: when analyzing a pointless, mostly boring game, invoke memories of grand and glorious past victories, to spice things up.)

Anyway, I'm not all up in arms about what Shambley did. He got stupid, he got ejected, story over. Fortunately, KJ wasn't seriously hurt.

Speaking of getting hurt, cross your fingers: the Hokies have gotten through two games now with no serious injuries. Two down, ten to go.

Shambley's shove (that has a nice ring to it, if personal fouls are your thing) woke up a sleepy Lane Stadium crowd and a sleepy Virginia Tech football team. Prior to that, Tech had outgained JMU just 135 yards to 72 yards, about two minutes into the second quarter. From that point on, Tech smoked 'em 352 yards to 71 yards.

Before the shove, the Hokie defense had given up four first downs in one drive, but after the shove, JMU only got four first downs the remaining 43 minutes of the game.

Rouse Brings Home the Bling

Congratulations to Aaron Rouse, who won the TSL Defensive Player of the Week in his first-ever career start and second career game. Rouse was starting in place of the suspended Brandon Manning, who had the good fortune of getting his suspension at the same time as Marcus Vick, thus deflecting all the attention from himself to Vick.

To be honest, I didn't notice Rouse was that active, though I did see the pop he laid on Alvin Banks that caused Banks to fumble.

Rouse had 4 solo tackles and 7 assists, and you know what? I like the 7 assists. That tells you he's not hanging around watching other people make tackles. He's -- say it with me -- flying to the ball.

The Perils of Running Backwards

Prior to getting knocked out of the game, Kevin Jones had rushed for 57 yards on 12 carries, a 4.8 yard average, with a long rush of 13 yards. After averaging 5.5 yards per carry his first two seasons, KJ's still looking for the north side of the 5-yard average this season. Through two games, he has 34 carries for 140 yards, a 4.1 average.

On the upside, Jones had a solid day in the all-important negative yards statistic, with no backtracks at all and positive yardage on every run. To put things in perspective, as a freshman Jones had 40 yards lost rushing out of 957 net yards, and last year, he had 31 yards lost rushing out of a net of 871. That's a lost yardage total that is 3.8% of his net rushing over his career.

This year, so far, he has 24 yards lost rushing on 140 net yards, 17.1%. Ouch. Kevin would need to gain 491 yards without losing a single yard to get back up to his career average of 3.8% yards lost to net yards gained.

While we're beating this statistic to death, I decided to go back and look at the career stats for Lee Suggs, the King of Hitting the Hole and Not Losing Yards. For his career, Suggs had 2.767 net yards rushing, with 79 yards lost along the way. That's 2.8% yards-lost-to-net over his career. For Jones' career, including this year, he's at 95 yards lost for 1,968 yards net, or a ratio of 4.8%.

Interesting stuff, and it points to the totally different styles of the two runners.

Air Beamer, Take 2

The Hokies ran the ball 53 times and threw it 22 times in this game, a big change from the 43:38 run:pass ratio of the UCF game. For the season, the Hokies run percentage is 61.5%, versus 70.7% last season.

The thing that really jumped out at me when looking over the drive charts for this game was the fact that the Hokies threw the ball eight straight times on their second possession of the third quarter, while holding a 20-0 lead. We're talking about a team that last year would have gone solely to the rushing game with a three-score lead, particularly against an overmatched team like JMU.

Eight straight times. When was the last time VT passed the ball eight straight times, especially while holding a big second-half lead? I would venture never. Not under Frank Beamer.

During that eight-pass stretch, Bryan Randall completed six of them for 68 yards. In those eight passes, he threw to five different receivers, all of them wideouts.

It's almost like it was one last burst of passing practice for Bryan Randall before putting in the substitute QBs and going to the running game. After that eighth pass, Tech ran the ball eight times and passed it twice before Randall went out of the game at the end of the third quarter, giving way to Chris Clifton and Lance Goff.

Clifton and Goff got to throw one pass each. Clifton's was a very badly thrown ball to Justin Hamilton, and Goff's was a nicely-thrown 31-yard completion to tight end (gasp!) Jeff King down the middle of the field (gasp!).

In the meantime, Clifton and Goff handed off 17 times, and Clifton ran a QB draw.

So (wrapping it all up here), that means that after the eight straight passes, VT had run the ball 27 times and thrown it 18 times. After that, they ran it 26 times and passed it just 4.

Hey, I'm stunned at how much VT is throwing the ball. I'm stunned at the variety of receivers, the patterns, and the seeming disregard for down, distance, and game situation. I've been trying not to say anything, though, because I'm so cynical of the whole "VT's going to open up the offense" thing. I still think when the going gets tough, the Hokies will fall back to the rushing game.

But so far this year ... I'm impressed. They seem to be serious about this passing thing.

Blocked Kicks ... The Wrong Kind

A message board poster pointed out that at this point in the season, the Hokies haven't blocked any kicks and have had two of their own blocked. He asked how many kicks the Hokies have averaged blocking in the first two games of the past few seasons.

Let's go all the way back to 1993, when the bowl streak started.

Seasons Blocked Kicks
First Two Games Season Total
1993 0 6
1994 1 4
1995 3 8
1996 2 6
1997 0 7
1998 1 12
1999 0 2
2000 3 8
2001 1 7
2002 2 7
Ave. 1.3 6.7

On average, in the last ten seasons, the Hokies usually have blocked a kick by now. The deepest they've gone into a season before blocking a kick is 1999, when they didn't block one until the fifth game of the season (like it mattered -- I still think one of the most interesting stats in Tech football is that the Hokies only blocked two kicks in 1999).

The Hokies haven't really gone for the block this year. UCF did the funky Australian Rules Football rollout punt thing, and Tech simply called off the dogs against JMU, preferring to let DeAngelo Hall roll up 105 yards on 3 punt returns.

My prediction is that the Hokies will unleash the hounds against Texas A&M. It's their highest profile game of this young season, on Thursday night, against a quality opponent. Frank Beamer will be looking for some "juice" to get his team and the crowd cranked up, and to break the game open.

Summary

To this point in the season, there are some unknowns about this Hokie football team. The offense is looking very impressive and is the strength of the team. The defense looks good on the DL -- good, not great -- but shaky at linebacker, and not every defensive back is playing well. Kickoffs look decent, punting is mediocre (averaging 39.0 yards on just three punts), and placekicking is a cause for concern (3-for-4 on field goals, including a 43-yarder, but two blocked kicks, a field goal and a PAT).

Starting with Texas A&M next Thursday and continuing on with UConn on the 27th, and then the Big East portion of the schedule, you should start to get a feel for where this Hokie team is going.

The team needs a season-defining game soon. In 1998, the season was defined by big back-to-back road wins, a 37-0 blowout win over Clemson, followed by a 27-20 OT win over Miami. In 1999, the Hokies spanked Clemson 31-11 in game 3, which marked Corey Moore's coming out game for the season. In 2000, they absolutely crushed a fired-up ECU team on the road in the second game of the season, even with Michael Vick playing poorly.

In 2001, against a weak early schedule, the season-defining win never came. In 2002, early victories over LSU at home and Texas A&M on the road were perceived as landmark wins, but the season went down the tubes in spite of those victories.

As an observer of the team, I find myself wishing for a defining game or moment, soon, to galvanize this team. The Miami Hurricanes already have their moment, storming back from a 33-10 deficit to beat Florida 38-33. The Hokies could use something to crystallize the team and focus them for the rest of the season. We'll see if they get it against Texas A&M.

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